NFL Picks Week 4 Review

I don't know what to believe anymore. Week 3 was an unmitigated disaster, with several upsets (but not the upset I predicted, naturally (that's what I get for believing in San Diego for two weeks in a row)). The Chiefs have won more games in a row (3) than they did all last year (2). The Bengals took out the Packers. Cleveland won. The Giants got destroyed. Miami keeps on winning. The Niners haven't won since I declared them the favorite in the NFC. The six games I did get right were blowouts (including my Steelers collapsing against the Bears). I did get my survival pick right again (Seattle in a laugher against Jacksonville). But my record now stands at 26-22 (with one of those losses being my too-late pick of Denver against Baltimore on opening night, so call it 26-21-1).

This week's match ups:

San Francisco @ St. Louis - San Francisco (I can't believe that the Niners are a flash in the pan. They are legitimate contenders, and legit contenders don't start 1-3.) (Finally, I called the Niners correctly! Good start to my rebound week!) CORRECT

Baltimore @ Buffalo - Baltimore (Besides week one, they have been a solid team defensively. Buffalo has struggled to find a consistent offense.) INCORRECT

Cincinnati @ Cleveland - Cincinnati (The victory over Green Bay is a huge statement. As far as Cleveland goes, their victory was against Minnesota, who can't get anything going.) INCORRECT

Chicago @ Detroit - Chicago (Detroit will get Reggie Bush back, but they lose Nate Burleson in the meantime. They need every weapon they can get against Chicago's D.) INCORRECT

New York Giants @ Kansas City - † New York Giants (I don't care how many they win in a row, I will continue to pick against the Chiefs. No, not really, but this week I think the Giants have something to prove, and they will.) INCORRECT

Pittsburgh @ Minnesota - Pittsburgh (Big Ben plays in London? C'mon, that's a given. Pittsburgh finally puts one in the W column.) INCORRECT, DAMMIT.

Arizona @ Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay (Tampa Bay has been having a rough season, and now Josh Freeman is riding the pine. But Arizona has had a run of injuries and are just plain beat up.) INCORRECT.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville - # Indianapolis (I don't think Jacksonville will go 0-16 this season, but this isn't where they'll get the win.) CORRECT

Seattle @ Houston - Seattle (The Texans have some holes, but the real story here is the Seahawks defense. Vacuum sealed. It'll be a tough match up at Reliant Field, but the Blue and Silver (and Green, and I think some shade of Ultramarine) will get it done.) CORRECT

New York Jets @ Tennessee - Tennessee (The Jets got called for 20 penalties against Buffalo. They can't do that against Tennessee or it's going to be a rout.) CORRECT

Philadelphia @ Denver - § Denver (The Broncos are 10.5 pt. favorites. I don't think it will be that big a margin, but the Eagles will struggle to fly in the thin air.) CORRECT

Washington @ Oakland - Washington (RGIII will eventually be the same quarterback that electrified crowds last season. The soft Oakland defense is the cure for what ails him.) CORRECT

Dallas @ San Diego - Dallas (After shocking the world by beating the Eagles, they lost a lead to the Titans late (as they have lost their lead in EVERY game this season) and they will face a bigger battle against the Dallas defense than they have all year.) INCORRECT

New England @ Atlanta - Atlanta (New England is the WORST 3-0 team ever. This is the first legitimate test they'll face, and the Falcons have urgency on their side, they need to win to stay in the hunt with New Orleans in the NFC South.) INCORRECT

Miami @ New Orleans - New Orleans (I am convinced that Miami is not just a fluke now, with their victory over Atlanta last week. But the Saints are a steamroller.) CORRECT

 # Smart Centipede's Iron Lock of the Week! (Locked!)
§ Smart Centipede's Survival Pick of the Week! (Survived!)
† Smart Centipede's Upset Pick of the Week! (Upset.)

NFL Picks Week 3 Review

Kansas City @ Philadelphia - Philadelphia rises up and sends the Chiefs back to reality. There's no way the Chiefs win more games in a row (3) than they did all of last season (2).

Green Bay @ Cincinnati - Green Bay ran over Washington last week, and they'll keep the momentum going against the Bengals, who practically had a bye week (playing the anemic Steelers Offense).

St. Louis @ Dallas - Dallas is going to be that team that always does the opposite of what I pick. They SHOULD have what it takes to take out St. Louis, so that probably means they'll get blown out LOL. But if I predict that, they'll win. So take Dallas, and I'll swear I said St. Louis.

San Diego @ Tennessee - † San Diego was my upset of the week last week, and while everybody on the broadcast was saying "who could have seen this?" I was nodding quietly with a big smile. This will be another tough contest, as Tennessee took Houston to overtime and dominated the Steelers, but I think Rivers gets it done again.

Cleveland @ Minnesota - Minnesota has had some tough contests with nothing to show for it, and they deserve a break. They'll get one, and if they put up half the effort they did against Chicago and Detroit, it will be a blow-out.

Tampa Bay @ New England - New England has to be the weakest 2-0 team I have ever seen. It'll be even funnier when they're the weakest 3-0 team of all time.

Arizona @ New Orleans - New Orleans' Drew Brees will own the consecutive games with a touchdown record (55) all on his own (56) after they paste one on the Cardinals.

Detroit @ Washington - This one is a tough one, but I have to pick someone. My heart says Detroit, but I'll have to go with my head. RGIII puts the 'Skins in the win column.

New York Giants @ Carolina - The Giants' Eli Manning looked decent against the Broncos in Manning Bowl III, and Carolina doesn't have the defense that Denver does.

Houston @ Baltimore - Houston has been in a few tight spots this season, but Baltimore looked suspect against the weak Cleveland squad. Houston will pull this one off.

Atlanta @ Miami - How is Miami favored in this one? I'd make this my upset pick of the week, except I'm pretty sure those odds are a typo.

Buffalo @ New York Jets - Buffalo games always come down to a point or two. They'll win this one by a bigger margin.

Indianapolis @ San Francisco - San Francisco doesn't have Andrew Luck, but they don't need luck to take out the Colts.

Jacksonville @ Seattle - § Seattle. Do you really need to ask? LOL

Chicago @ Pittsburgh - Chicago. I can't really bear to say more about it. :(

Oakland @ Denver - # Denver gets high in the mountain air, rising to 3-0 while the Raiders fall back to Earth.

# - Smart Centipede's Iron Lock Pick of the Week!
§ - Smart Centipede's Survival Pick of the Week!
† - Smart Centipede's Upset of the Week!

NFL Picks Week 2 Review


Okay, so let's take a look at Week 2!


New York Jets @ New England - New England - CORRECT!


St. Louis @ Atlanta - Atlanta - CORRECT!


Carolina @ Buffalo - Buffalo - CORRECT!


Minnesota @ Chicago - Chicago - CORRECT!

Washington @ Green Bay - Green Bay - CORRECT!

Miami @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis - WRONG. Miami is a little better than I thought they'd be. Or is Indianapolis worse?


Dallas @ Kansas City - Dallas - WRONG. Dallas continues to baffle. Is KC for real this year?


San Diego @ Philadelphia - San Diego † - CORRECT!


Cleveland @ Baltimore - Baltimore § - CORRECT!


Tennessee @ Houston - Houston - CORRECT!

Detroit @ Arizona - Detroit - WRONG. I once picked Detroit thirteen weeks in a row before picking against them. They started 1-13 that season. 

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - New Orleans # - CORRECT!

Jacksonville @ Oakland - Oakland - CORRECT!

Denver @ New York Giants - Denver - CORRECT!


San Francisco @ Seattle - San Francisco - WRONG. Seattle utterly dominated the Niners, thanks in large part to the crowd, which set a Guinness Book Record for loudest sporting event.


Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - Cincinnati - CORRECT :(

§ = Smart Centipede's Survival Pick of the Week! (Survived!)

† = Smart Centipede's Upset of the Week! (As predicted!)
# = Smart Centipede's Iron Lock of the Week! (Rock solid!)

End Total: 12-4. Season Total: 20-12. This is more like it! Email me at kenn.beck@gmail.com by 9 AM Thursday to get a full slate of games for Week 3, just $15 with a per-game money back guarantee!

NFL Picks Week 1 Review

OK, a rough Week 1 may have left some doubters. We'll go over these picks, explain what went wrong, and then I will post my Week 2 picks for free, showing that everybody has one off week, and that we're back on track for a successful season!


Review of Week One:


Baltimore @ Denver (Again, I was too late to pick Denver, but I would have gotten a win on this one.) We'll call it a push.)


New England @ Buffalo - New England - CORRECT

Cincinnati @ Chicago - Chicago - CORRECT

Miami @ Cleveland - Miami - CORRECT

Minnesota @ Detroit - Detroit - CORRECT

Oakland @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis #,§ - CORRECT


Atlanta @ New Orleans - Atlanta - (Here, we hit the first snag. Atlanta made a game of it, but two excellent defensive plays in their own end zone, preserved the win in the final minute for the Saints.)


Tampa @ New York Jets - Tampa - (I forgot that Mark Sanchez was out. Now that he's gone (likely for good) the Jets should do much better LOL)


Tennessee @ Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh - (I am a diehard Steeler's fan, and would rather not discuss the fact that after being gifted 2 points by Tennessee on the opening :03, the Steelers offense failed to produce anything for the next 58:34, thanks largely to TWO Isaac Redman fumbles (ONE INTO THE ENDZONE, GOD HELP ME). The loss of Maurkice Pouncey and Larry Foote for the year will mean I need to pick with my head rather than my heart.)


Seattle @ Carolina - Seattle - CORRECT

Kansas City @ Jacksonville - Kansas City - CORRECT


Arizona @ St. Louis - Arizona † - (St. Louis was favored, but I didn't think they deserved to be, so this would have been an upset only according to the odds-makers. But this truly was an upset, as the St. Louis Rams won it late despite trailing and, in general, looking like the lesser football team.)


Green Bay @ San Francisco - Green Bay - (Kaepernick is here to stay, folks. This is a wake up call to those who doubted the Niners as the heavy favorites in the NFC.)


New York Giants @ Dallas - New York (Six turnovers. SIX. Oy vey.)


Philadelphia @ Washington - Washington (So Philly will be running the hurry-up offense for the entire season? Yeah, THAT'LL work.)


Houston @ San Diego - Houston - CORRECT


† = Smart Centipede's Upset of the Week! (Upset.)

§ = Smart Centipede's Survival Pick of the Week! (Survived!)


# = Smart Centipede's Iron Lock of the Week! (Locked!)


Okay, so let's right this ship with some Week 2 picks, this time in time for the Thursday tilt!


Week 2:


New York Jets @ New England - New England (Geno Smith is doing the work, and doing the homework. But this would be too early in the Cinderella story for such an upset. Tom takes care of it this week).


St. Louis @ Atlanta - Atlanta (Matt Ryan and company will win their home opener against an overconfident St. Louis squad.)


Carolina @ Buffalo - Buffalo (Carolina is favored by a slim 2.5 pts., but Buffalo brought it against the Pats last week. The ONLY professional football team that plays in NY wins in a squeaker.)


Minnesota @ Chicago - Chicago (Bears are already in mid-season form, defensively, and Minny looked weak against Detroit.)


Washington @ Green Bay - Green Bay (The Redskins got beat by the hurry up offense. In the first half. Yes, they adjusted, but Rodgers needs no shenanigans.)


Miami @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis (Miami isn't Oakland, but Indianapolis is NOT Cleveland. That makes perfect sense, if you think about it.)


Dallas @ Kansas City - Dallas (They won't get six turnovers again, but KC isn't so far removed from their 2-14 campaign of last season.)


San Diego @ Philadelphia - San Diego † (The hurry-up didn't work for very long against the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense got off to an equally hot start, but couldn't keep it up against the Texans. The Eagles should show far less resilience against Rivers.)


Cleveland @ Baltimore - Baltimore § (Cleveland IS Cleveland, and Baltimore are the defending champs. Don't let last week's torching at the hands of Peyton Manning fool ya; this Ravens team is not going to fall too far.)


Tennessee @ Houston - Houston (The Titans return team scored more for Pittsburgh than Pittsburgh did for all but 2 minutes of last week's match-up. Houston showed they can score, and score late. Tennessee is the one with the problem here.)


Detroit @ Arizona - Detroit (Detroit might have a running game again? Bush won't make anyone forget Barry Sanders, but the Lions have more tools at their disposal than the St. Louis team that dumped Arizona in Week 1.)


New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - New Orleans # (Brees gets #55 against a "revamped" Tampa secondary that allowed a win by a rookie QB who was originally behind Mark "Butt-Fumble" Sanchez on the depth chart.)


Jacksonville @ Oakland - Oakland (Because you have to pick someone to win. The only safe bet is this will be the most boring game in the NFL this week.)


Denver @ New York Giants - Denver (Battle of the Mannings! I'm honestly torn on this one. But I think big-brother wins out this time.)


San Francisco @ Seattle - San Francisco (This is the QB match-up of the week here. Both QBs are coming off career-best performances, but while Kaepernick's resulted in a 34-28 win against NFC North perennial powerhouse Green Bay, Wilson's was a 12-7 win against... Carolina? There's a drop off, there.)


Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - Cincinnati (This is the earliest in the season that I've ever picked against my Steelers. With the loss of Pouncey and Foote, the struggles of the Pittsburgh running game, and Cincinnati keeping it close against Chicago... sorry, boys. I have to go with my head, not my heart.)

§ = Smart Centipede's Survival Pick of the Week! (Baltimore over Cleveland)


† = Smart Centipede's Upset of the Week! (San Diego over Philadelphia)

# = Smart Centipede's Iron Lock of the Week! (New Orleans over Tampa Bay)

2013 NFL Pick 'Em!

Last season, I finished in the top 1% of all Yahoo! Fantasy Football Pick 'Em players. I went 175-81, which, at $1 a game, would have made a $94 profit. I was a pass interference non-call away from a perfect week 6!

This season, I am willing to share my picks. For just $15 a week, I will send you a full slate of 16 picks,  with a money back guarantee! That means if my pick doesn't win their game, you'll get $1 back for that game.*

As a free sample, I will give you my Week 1 picks right here, for free! I only make money if my picks win, so it's literally a win-win scenario!

Email me at kenn.beck@gmail.com if you are interested in signing up! Individual weeks available! Discount for entire season package! Survival Football Picks also available!

*Maximum Refund is amount paid for that week's picks. Weeks with fewer than 16 games will be charged at $1 a game.

Week One:

Baltimore @ Denver (Too late! I forgot the season started on Thursday, now. I would have picked Denver, but fair is fair and I can't count this one.)

New England @ Buffalo - New England
Cincinnati @ Chicago - Chicago
Miami @ Cleveland - Miami
Minnesota @ Detroit - Detroit
Oakland @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis #,§
Atlanta @ New Orleans - Atlanta
Tampa @ New York Jets - Tampa
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh
Seattle @ Carolina - Seattle
Kansas City @ Jacksonville - Kansas City
Arizona @ St. Louis - Arizona †
Green Bay @ San Francisco - Green Bay
New York Giants @ Dallas - New York
Philadelphia @ Washington - Washington
Houston @ San Diego - Houston



# = Smart Centipede's Iron Lock of the Week!
† = Smart Centipede's Upset of the Week!
§ = Smart Centipede's Survival Pick of the Week!


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