Friday, January 20, 2017

2016-2017 NFL Picks: Conference Championship Weekend

Regular Season: 164-88-2
Wildcard Weekend: 3-1
Divisional Weekend: 4-0

Sunday, 1/22
Green Bay @ Atlanta: Atlanta
Pittsburgh @ New England: Pittsburgh

Green Bay has been a dramatic dynamo this season. Aaron Rodgers has carried this team, but the road ends in Georgia. Jordy Nelson is not 100%, nor is Rodgers himself. There's too much going against them, and the Falcons are the highest scoring offense this year, even scoring above their 33 PPG average last week against the Seahawks, one of the better defenses in the NFL, which the Packers are not.

Now, for the explanation of the second game. I know I said I was biased, and the fact that I was wrong a little less than a third of the time in picking Steelers games this season means my judgement may be questionable, but New England struggled to out play the freaking Texans in the first half last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, couldn't generate any TD's on offense against the Chiefs. But Brady has a lot on his shoulders and no Gronk to help him out, while Ben has his killer B's (Brown and Bell) for a dual pronged attack that should get back on track this week. It's time for Big Ben to prove he's one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and winning the AFC Championship at Foxboro would be just the thing.

Friday, January 13, 2017

2016-2017 NFL Picks: Divisional Weekend

Regular Season: 164-88-2
Wildcard Weekend: 3-1

Saturday, 1/14

Seattle @ Atlanta: Atlanta
Houston @ New England: New England

Seattle lost three of their last six games to end the regular season, and struggled to beat the 2-14 San Francisco 49ers in Week 17. They have consistently struggled against weaker teams, yet they beat the Patriots IN New England in Week 10. The inconsistency seems to indicate a loss, but they did pretty well against the Lions last week, a notorious playoff loser. The Falcons are another team that have failed to have any consistency in the playoffs, but they have 540 total points this season, the top total in the NFL. The second place team? New England, with 441. This seems to SCREAM Atlanta, and knowing my terrible history with Atlanta this season, the Seahawks will likely squeak by them, 11-8 or something ridiculous like that. Meanwhile, the 300 stood better odds against the Persians than the Texans have against the Patriots.

Sunday, 1/15

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City: Pittsburgh
Green Bay @ Dallas: Green Bay

The Chiefs finished strong this season, winning 10 of their last 12, and snatched the AFC West out from under the Raiders in Week 17 with a win against the Chargers, earning the 2nd overall seed and a bye in the Wildcard Round. But those two losses came against the Buccaneers in Week 11 and the Titans in Week 15, two teams that don't exactly scream "dominant." And one of their other losses was a blowout loss against the Steelers, who won 7 in a row to storm into the playoffs on the strength of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell and Antonio Brown. The Steelers are too well rounded, and have too much momentum. Meanwhile, the Packers will be without top receiver Jordy Nelson, but will that challenge be enough to derail the machine that is Aaron Rodgers? Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are the rookie phenoms that have catapulted Dallas into the limelight (and a top seed), but the Playoffs tend to be a different story. This is the toughest game I have ever had to predict, but I think the Kids don't have as easy a time as they have seemingly had this regular season, and Green Bay wins this one.

Friday, January 06, 2017

2016-2017 NFL Picks: Wildcard Weekend

Regular Season: 164-88-2

Saturday, 1/7
Oakland @ Houston: Houston
Detroit @ Seattle: Detroit

Because of the four division format, there are bound to be occasions where a Wildcard team has a much better record than a division winner, and this is the case with Oakland (12-4, Wildcard) and Houston (9-7, AFC South Winner). There are also times when the Wildcard team is a heavy underdog to the Host. But rare is the occasion when both of these scenarios are true. The Oakland Raiders are now without their quarterback, Derek Carr, who broke his leg in Week 16. In a must-win game in Week 17, the Raiders had their second string QB knocked out of the game, and they looked helpless against a Denver team that fell short of expectations this season. Houston is, itself, a weak team, but things don't look good for the Raiders. Meanwhile, I think this is the season that Stafford proves he's a better QB than he gets credit for, and finally pulls out a big road win, the first for Detroit since 1957.

Sunday, 1/8
Miami @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh
New York (NFC) @ Green Bay: Green Bay

Pittsburgh picked the right time to go on a roll, having won 7 in a row to close out the season. After a great 4-1 start, there was a rough 4 game patch where they lost every game they played, which started with a loss in Miami. But they are in Pittsburgh now, where the Steelers have beaten everyone but the two top seeds, New England and Dallas. Green Bay finished strong as well, although the Giants are one of those tricky teams that seem to excel just when you count them out. But they aren't a dominant team, and Green Bay at home with icy temperatures... The Pack is back.

Monday, January 02, 2017

2016-2017 NFL Picks Wrap Up

Week 17 Record: 11-5
Overall Record: 164-88-2

Final Yahoo Rank: 96th Percentile (Top 4%)

Still not as good as my 99th Percentile finish in 2012, but pretty darned good, if you ask me.

Below you will find the results of my picks for each NFL Team.

Cleveland: 16-0

Perfection. But once they get to 0-7, it's kind of a sucker bet. I did have a feeling in Week 16, though.

San Francisco: 15-1

Only failed to predict their win in Week 16, but I don't know anyone who thought they'd win.

Jacksonville: 13-3
New York (NFC): 13-3

I knew Jacksonville would be bad, and I knew New York would be good.

New York (AFC): 12-4
New England: 12-4
Kansas City: 12-4
Oakland: 12-4
Chicago: 12-4

I had KC right through Week 10, but then lost my rhythm.

Pittsburgh: 11-5
Indianapolis: 11-5
Miami: 11-5
San Diego: 11-5
Detroit: 11-5
Tampa Bay: 11-5
Carolina: 11-5
New Orleans: 11-5
Los Angeles: 11-5

I am a Steelers fan, and had a hard time picking against them. Every single game, even the ones I knew they probably wouldn't win (New England, Dallas) I always had a reason to suspect that they'd come out on top. I knew they weren't going to go 16-0, yet every week, I was optimistic and picked them to win. This is probably the one team I shouldn't be trusted with because I will always hold out hope they can win.

Cincinnati: 10-5-1

Fucking ties.

Baltimore: 10-6
Houston: 10-6
Buffalo: 10-6
Green Bay: 10-6

We begin to delve into unremarkable territory. I don't consider picking 10 out of 16 results any great shakes.

Seattle: 9-6-1

Again, fucking ties.

Denver: 9-7
Dallas:  9-7

Not good. I kept hoping Denver would be better than what they were.

Washington: 8-7-1
Arizona: 8-7-1

The fucking ties!

Philadelphia: 7-9

I thought Philly would be awful this year, and they were. But not awful enough early enough.

Tennessee: 6-10
Minnesota: 6-10
Atlanta: 6-10

I couldn't guess these teams right to save my life. I guessed wrong on Atlanta eight weeks in a row to open the season. The only time I have ever done worse with a team was in 2001 when I went with the Lions to win for thirteen straight weeks, which was the year the Lions started 0-13. I finally gave up on them and picked them to lose against the Vikings. They won. I finally picked a Lions game correctly that year when I predicted they'd lose to the Steelers, which they did.

Sunday, January 01, 2017

2016-2017 NFL Picks: Week 17

Week 16 Record: 11-5
Overall Record: 153-83-2

Sunday, 1/1
Baltimore @ Cincinnati: Baltimore
Houston @ Tennessee: Houston
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis: Indianapolis
New England @ Miami: New England
Minnesota @ Chicago: Minnesota
Buffalo @ New York (AFC): Buffalo
Dallas @ Philadelphia: Dallas
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh
Carolina @ Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay
New Orleans @ Atlanta: Atlanta
Oakland @ Denver: Denver
Arizona @ Los Angeles: Arizona
Kansas City @ San Diego: Kansas City
Seattle @ San Francisco: Seattle
New York (NFC) @ Washington: New York
Green Bay @ Detroit: Detroit
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