Smart Centipede's 2016 MLB Off-Season Wrap Up and Prediction Show

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

2015: 81-81, 3rd

Acquisitions: L.J. Hoes, Hyun-soo Kim, Mark Trumbo, C.J. Riefenhauser

Key Transaction: Re-signing Chris Davis

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: The Orioles were middle of the road in an imminently winnable A.L. East, and they have done next to nothing to get better. Mark Trumbo is a cusp impact player, but the loss of Wei Yin Chen leaves their rotation a huge question mark. They did re-sign Chris Davis, the best power bat on the market, but will that be enough to overcome the rest of the division?

Forecast: 4th in AL East

Boston Red Sox

2015: 78-84, 5th

Acquisitions: David Price, Chris Young (the outfielder, not the pitcher), Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Roenis Elias

Key Transaction: Signing David Price

Off-Season Grade: B+

Analysis: The Red Sox have lacked a true number one starter since Jon Lester, and now they have David Price. They've lacked a lockdown closer since Jon Papelbon left town, and now they've got Craig Kimbrel. If either Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez have a bounce back campaign, the Sox could be in the hunt deep into September. If they both have a bounce back year, they just might do the worst to first thing again for the second time in five years.

Forecast: 3rd in AL East

New York Yankees

2015: 87-75, 2nd (1WC)

Acquisitions: Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks

Key Transaction: Trading for Aroldis Chapman

Off-Season Grade: B 

Analysis: The Yanks got one of the top three closers in the game for two years. Plus they got a second baseman that's better than Rob Refsnyder. They are trying to get younger, and have, thus far, avoided dealing any of their coveted prospects. But they're still plenty old.

Forecast: 1st in AL East

Tampa Bay Rays

2015: 80-82, 4th

Acquisitions: Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Hank Conger

Key Transaction: Uhhh... Miller?

Off-Season Grade: C

Analysis: Look, there's no easy way to say this. The Rays suck, and they're going to keep sucking. There are plenty of options out there right now that would make this team closer to being a contender, or at least more of a draw, like Pedro Alvarez at first, but with the franchise's imminent departure from Tampa Bay, the Rays have chosen options like Logan Morrison. There like a minor car wreck on the side of SR-60; nothing to see here.

Forecast: 5th in AL East

Toronto Blue Jays

2015: 93-69, 1st

Acquisitions: Marco Estrada, Jesse Chavez, J.A. Happ, Drew Storen

Key Transaction: Trading for Drew Storen

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: The Blue Jays went for it last season, and they came within two games of going to the World Series, falling short in the ALCS to the eventual World Champion Royals. And then the went ahead and let the biggest reason for their late success, David Price, leave for a division rival without making an offer. There were plenty of other free agents out there to enhance their team, but then seemingly went with cheaper options at every turn.

Forecast: 2nd in AL East (possible WC2)

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

2015: 76-86, 4th

Acquisitions: Alex Avila, Dioner Navarro, Brett Lawrie, Todd Frazier

Key Transaction: Trading for Todd Frazier

Off-Season Grade: B+

Analysis: The White Sox went into 2015 having made some serious moves in the offseason, but still having three alarming areas of need; 3B, 2B, and C. They addressed those areas a year later in the best available ways, and the strength of their rating here is based largely on the fact that they did it and managed to hold onto the prospects that all the other teams were asking for. They have new needs, though, with the departure of Jeff Samardzija and Alexei Ramirez, and as of yet, have not made the necessary moves to compensate for those losses. They're pursuing a free agent outfielder to upgrade the disappointing production of Avisail Garcia, but they're still relying on Tyler Saladino at short and John Danks in the rotation.

Forecast: 3rd in AL Central (possible WC2)

Cleveland Indians

2015: 81-80, 3rd

Acquisitions: Robbie Grossman, Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli

Key Transaction: Signing Rajai Davis

Off-Season Grade: C

Analysis: Rajai Davis being your key transaction is not a good sign. Cleveland is touted for it's young, controllable pitching, but they still need a stronger lineup. Better options are out there than Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis (Chris Davis and Dexter Fowler, respectively, jump out at me) that would cost a lot more wampum, but the tribe seems content to spend only a handful of beads for sub-standard pieces. Robbie Grossman could be a good value pick up for them, which would bump their grade to a C+.

Forecast: 5th in AL Central

Detroit Tigers

2015: 74-87, 5th

Acquisitions: Francisco Rodriguez, Cameron Maybin, Jordan Zimmerman, Mike Pelfrey, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mark Lowe, Justin Upton

Key Transaction: Signing Jordan Zimmerman

Off-Season Grade: A-

Analysis: The signing of Jordan Zimmerman, barring an unforeseen turn of events or traumatic head injury, is the move of the entire off-season for any team. In the days of $200M, 7 year contracts, they landed him for 5 years at $110M. Is he enough to help an under performing Tigers squad to improve on their last place finish of 2015? Justin Upton for six years at $136M should help with that as well. They also nabbed a closer, another dynamic outfielder, and some other decent pieces. Looks like the Tigers collapse was an aberration.

Forecast: 1st in AL Central

Kansas City Royals

2015: 95-67, 1st

Acquisitions: Ian Kennedy, Tony Cruz, Joakim Soria, Alex Gordon, Chris Young (the pitcher, not the outfielder)

Key Transaction: Re-signing Alex Gordon

Off-Season Grade: B

Analysis:The Royals are going with the "if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it" approach this off-season. Alex Gordon is back despite reports of their being "no chance" of him returning, Joakim Soria makes a return to the city where he made his name, and Chris Young is back in his role as "Mr. Dependable." Bubba Starling and Kyle Zimmer were once heralded as the next big things, and it looks like they'll get a shot to crack this formidable lineup. Ian Kennedy gives them another impact arm in the rotation, and is the lone significant addition that wasn't already part of their organization at one point. But they haven't taken enough steps to get better, and to repeat as champions, you have to make bold moves.

Forecast: 2nd in AL Central (WC1)

Minnesota Twins

2015: 83-79, 2nd

Acquisitions: Daniel Palka, John Ryan Murphy, Byung Ho Park

Key Transaction: Signing Byung Ho Park

Off-Season Grade: C

Analysis: The Twins shocked the world by being competitive last year, and they've done nothing to ensure their surprise success will not be a fluke. Power makes a notoriously poor transition across the Pacific, so it remains to be seen if Park will mash in the tundra of Minnesota, but even sixty home runs won't push this mediocre Twins team to the next level.

Forecast: 4th in AL Central

AL West

Houston Astros

2015: 86-76, 2nd (2WC)

Acquisitions: Brendan McCurry, Cy Sneed, Tony Sipp, Ken Giles, Doug Fister

Key Transaction: The trade for Ken Giles

Off-Season Grade: B

Analysis: Houston surprised a lot of people last year by making the playoffs earlier than anticipated, after years of rebuilding, and they've addressed their key need this off-season by securing two upper level relievers, returning Tony Sipp and trading for Philadelphia's top-flight closer, Ken Giles. They gave up the eternally touted #1 overall draft pick Mark Appel in the deal, but there's only one 1st overall draft pick to ever make the Hall of Fame, so why let that stop you from succeeding? The late addition of Doug Fister strengthens an already robust rotation.

Forecast: 2nd in AL West (possible WC2)

Los Angeles Angels

2015: 85-77, 3rd

Acquisitions: Andrelton Simmons, Cliff Pennington, Geovany Soto, Yunel Escobar, Daniel Nava

Key Transaction: Trading for Andrelton Simmons

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: The Simmons trade showed that the Angels value defense, securing a dynamic young star in the making. The signings of Soto and Pennington, however, show that they're willing to fill in the blanks with journeymen and also rans. Escobar is not going to make anyone miss David Freese. In a vacuum, this team has gotten better, but with the improvements to the other teams in the division, the Angels won't be ascending any time soon.

Forecast: 4th in AL West

Oakland Athletics

2015: 68-94, 5th

Acquisitions: Liam Hendricks, Jed Lowrie, Marc Rzepczynski, Yonder Alonso, J.B. Wendelken, Zack Erwin, John Axford, Ryan Madson

Key Transaction: Signing Ryan Madson

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: Ryan Madson has been a nice story, and the Athletics have gone in heavy on their bullpen to help closer Sean Doolittle, who is returning from injury. They continue, however, to trade away anything of value for multiple prospects of questionable return. Yonder Alonso is one of the weaker 1B's in the league power wise, and the Athletics continue to look like a bottom rung team with no ability to move forward quickly. The rebuild continues.

Forecast: 5th in AL West

Seattle Mariners

2015: 76-86, 4th

Acquisitions: Boog Powell, Nathan Karns, Joaquin Benoit, Leonys Martin, Anthony Bass, Steve Clevenger, Nori Aoki, Wade Miley, Jonathan Aro, Adam Lind, Hisashi Iwakuma

Key Transaction: Trade for Adam Lind

Off-Season Grade: B+

Analysis: The Mariners are another team that made significant strides last year during the off-season and then on to under-perform and disappoint in 2015. They've once again made significant moves this off-season to finish what they started, landing Joaquin Benoit to bolster the back end of the rotation and give Steve Cishek some help. Adam Lind gives them some pop at 1B and Seager is coming into his own, but there's some serious lack of power in the outfield. 

Forecast: 1st in AL West

Texas Rangers

2015: 88-74, 1st

Acquisitions: Tom Wilhelmsen

Key Transaction: By default, Trading for Tom Wilhelmsen

Off-Season Grade: C-

Analysis: The Texas Rangers are also going with the "if it ain't broke, don't try to fix it" approach this off-season. Except, unlike the Royals, the Rangers didn't get out of the first round of the playoffs last year. I know they had a lot of injuries, but don't they always have injuries? I see no reason to expect them to dominate in a division that has improved substantially around them.

Forecast: 3rd in AL West

NL East

Atlanta Braves

2015: 67-95, 4th

Acquisitions: Erick Aybar, Sean Newcombe, Ian Krol, Gabe Speier, Gordon Beckham, Emilio Bonifacio, Ender Enciarte, Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, Casey Kelly, Kelly Johnson, Ricardo Rodriguez, Tyler Flowers, A.J. Pierzynski, Jose Briceno

Key Transaction: Flipping Shelby Miller

Off-Season Grade: B

Analysis: The Braves plan is to rebuild, which means they don't plan on winning. Which is a key distinction, because it explains why they've been signing as many former Chicago White Sox as possible. Bonifacio, Flowers, Beckham, Pierzynski... someone call Scott Podsednik and Joe Crede on the phone and let them know Atlanta will be making an offer very soon. And they know that teams usually only carry two catchers, right? Because they've acquired four so far this off-season (O.K., Pierzynski was a re-sign, but still). However, when you consider how they landed Shelby Miller, they've now given up one season of Jason Heyward for Tyrell Jenkins, Ender Enciarte, Aaron Blair, and Dansby Swanson (the first #1 overall draft pick ever traded in his first season). Having sent away the best defensive SS in the game (Simmons) and a dynamic CF (Maybin), they will struggle to win, but that IS the plan.

Forecast: 4th in NL East

Miami Marlins

2015: 71-91, 3rd

Acquisitions: Wei-Yin Chen, Edwin Jackson, Chris Johnson, Jeff Mathis

Key Transaction: Signing Wei Yin Chen

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: The Marlins have done well this off-season simply by NOT trading Jose Fernandez when everyone in the baseball world is wanting to land him. If he stays healthy coming off Tommy John surgery, he's young, controllable, and a Cy Young candidate, and no team would have met the asking price he's worth commanding. Adding Chen and Jackson gives them a viable #2 and 3.5 (Jackson's not really a #3). They haven't given up much, but they haven't done enough to catch the division leaders.

Forecast: 3rd in NL East

New York Mets

2015: 90-72, 1st

Acquisitions: Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alejandro De Aza, Yoenis Cespedes

Key Transaction: Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes

Off-Season Grade: C-

Analysis: The Mets are a hot mess this off-season. Their moves reek of panic and thrift. They angered their fans to no end in their quest to upgrade over centerfielder Juan Lagares, by signing leftfielder Alejandro De Aza instead of making a quality offer to Yoenis Cespedes, and then they made a very player-friendly 3 year offer with a one year opt out to... Yoenis Cespedes? And in the end, neither of them can play center good enough to be considered an upgrade over Lagares anyway. Ian Desmond is still looking for a job, but they went and made an overpay for Asdrubal Cabrera. They get marks for holding onto the Four Horsemen of the Rotation, the best group of four in the biz, but they continually demonstrate that they don't really know how offense works.

Forecast: 2nd in NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

2015: 63-99, 5th

Acquisitions: Sam McWilliams, Peter Bourjos, David Hernandez, Brett Oberholtzer, Harold Arauz, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman, Vincent Velasquez, Charlie Morton

Key Transaction: Trading Giles while he's valuable

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: The Phillies had one piece of value left in closer Ken Giles, and they dealt him for a crop of prospects. Considering they have no chance to win, and they are saddled with the contract of an untradeable Ryan Howard, this is probably the best they can hope for. If Mark Appel ever lives up to his original hype (drafted in the first round twice, including 1st overall in 2013) that could end up being a key piece for their future. That's a giant "if," though.

Forecast: 5th in NL East

Washington Nationals

2015: 83-79, 2nd

Acquisitions: Michael Brady, Trevor Gott, Daniel Murphy, Ben Revere

Key Transaction: Trading Drew Storen

Off-Season Grade: B

Analysis: The Nationals had to trade a closer, as they had two of them and it made for a very unpleasant situation last season. So, who to trade; the volatile, notorious clubhouse problem Jonathan Papelbon, or the formerly shaky and now downright shattered Drew Storen, who lost his job to Paps when he rolled into town? Despite the fact that Papelbon attempted to choke the future God of Major League Baseball Bryce Harper, they made the right choice, as Papelbon is an asshole, but an asshole who can still make outs. I really hope that Storen can get his mojo back in Toronto. The under-performing Nats are looking to bounce back hard, and the over-performing Mets did little to cement their place atop the NL East, so this could be interesting.

Forecast: 1st in NL East

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

2015: 97-65, 3rd (2WC)

Acquisitions: John Lackey, Adam Warren, Brendan Ryan, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, 200,000,000 true believers

Key Transaction: Jason Heyward

Off-Season Grade: A

Analysis: What a story! I will freely admit to picking the Cubs to finish last in 2015, and boy was I wrong! Who knew Jake Arrieta was really Cy Young in disguise? To cap off their insane 2015, they went into the off-season loaded for bear. Who's the most versatile infielder in free-agency? Ben Zobrist. SIGN HIM! Who would the Cardinals hate to lose to a division rival, who will solidify our rotation without breaking the bank? John Lackey. SIGN HIM! Who's the best defensive outfielder in free-agency? Jason Heyward. SIGN HIM! The only reason the Cubs don't get an A+ here is Heyward is a rightfielder, but their shifting him to center, which comes with some unnecessary risks, especially given there are other CF's available and their looking to trade a RF anyway (Jorge Soler). Everybody's drinking the Kool-Aid now. The Cubs have successfully used their 107 year futility streak as a SELLING point to get free agents to sign for less! 

Forecast: 1st in NL Central

Cincinnati Reds

2015: 64-98, 5th

Acquisitions: Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, Brandon Dixon, Caleb Cotham, Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo, Tony Renda

Key Transaction: Dealing Aroldis Chapman

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: The Reds get some credit for dealing their two most deal-able players in Chapman and Todd Frazier, and landing seven players in those deals. But the trade for Frazier involved the Dodgers, for some reason, when they could have had three superior prospects from the White Sox. And they are still stuck with Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, who could get them many more pieces that would help their rebuild.

Forecast: 4th in NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers

2015: 68-94, 4th

Acquisitions: Javier Betancourt, Carlos Herrera, Daniel Missaki, Freddy Peralta, Will Middlebrooks, Chris Carter

Key Transaction: Chris Carter

Off-Season Grade: C

Analysis: Carter is not going to help them Brewers be a contender. They're going to struggle mightily, and the roster spot would be better spent bringing a prospect up to give them experience. They also have not castrated Lyin' Ryan Braun, so they lose points for this, because it's my fucking website, and he is a disgrace to the game.

Forecast: 5th in NL Central

Pittsburgh Pirates

2015: 98-64, 2nd (1WC)

Acquisitions: Jon Niese, Sean Rodriguez, Ryan Vogelsong, John Jaso

Key Transaction: Inviting Reese McGuire to spring training

Off-Season Grade: C

Analysis: I really want to believe in the Buccos, but they haven't done anything in free-agency to make me think they're keeping up with the Cubs. If the rumored Bryce Harper comparisons I've heard are true, Reese McGuire will be a major event in the Pirates training camp, because there's not much else to talk about there.

Forecast: 3rd in NL Central (possible WC2)

St. Louis Cardinals

2015: 100-62, 1st

Acquisitions: Brayan Pena, Jose Martinez, Jedd Gyorko, Jonathan Broxton, Mike Leake, Seung Hwan Oh

Key Transaction: Signing Mike Leake

Off-Season Grade: B

Analysis: Mike Leake will be a key part of a rotation that lost Lackey and has been ravaged by injuries for the better part of the past three years. They still haven't done enough to replace Heyward, but Gyorko gives them more flexibility than Jon Jay did, and Pena will be a key figure if Yadier Molina's thumb continues to refuse to heal correctly.

Forecast: 2nd in NL Central (WC1)

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

2015: 79-83, 3rd

Acquisitions: Chris Herrmann, Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Gabe Speier, Cody Hall

Key Transaction: Zack Greinke

Off-Season Grade: A

Analysis: Minutes. That's how far away we were from Zack Greinke being on a California based team. Then the Diamondbacks, fresh off signing a $1.5 Billion TV deal, threw some of their new found money around and landed the best free agent pitcher available. Then they went and traded Dansby Swanson, the first overall pick in that year's draft, to the rebuilding Braves to get their number one starter, Shelby Miller. Knowing they had starter Patrick Corbin coming back from injury, they created a buffer around him, pushing him into the three spot, and with their young lineup, the D-Backs are suddenly ready to put a lot of pressure on the NL West.

Forecast: 2nd in NL West (possible WC2)

Colorado Rockies

2015: 68-94, 5th

Acquisitions: Yency Almonte, Chad Qualls, Jason Motte, Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra

Key Transaction: Signing Gerardo Parra

Off-Season Grade: C

Analysis: The Rockies sent Corey Dickerson and Kevin Padlo to Miami for two pitchers. Why not? The Rockies aren't going to be any better than the 4th team in a 5 team division with or without Dickerson, why hold onto him, especially since they signed Parra? The Mark Reynolds signing could be fun with him hitting in that thin air. 40 HR's?

Forecast: 5th in NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

2015: 92-70, 1st

Acquisitions: Chase Utley, Micah Johnson, Frankie Montas, Trayce Thompson, Scott Kazmir, Kenta Maeda, Erick Mejia

Key Transaction: Signing Scott Kazmir

Off-Season Grade: D+

Analysis:The Dodgers are the Keystone Cops of this year's off-season. They tried (and failed) to trade for Aroldis Chapman, even though they already have a top closer in Kenley Jansen, achieving nothing other than shaking their closer's confidence. They lost Zack Greinke, their only right handed starting pitcher, and replaced him with an inferior lefty in Kazmir. They traded three prospects to the Reds and ended up getting three slightly better prospects from the White Sox, but they bypassed getting Todd Frazier, an upgrade over whomever will man third for them this year, to do it. They re-signed Chase Utley for $7M, when they money could have been better spent somewhere- ANYWHERE- else. Once the Mets signed Cespedes back, they escaped the basement of this off-season's rankings, leaving Los Angeles alone as dunce of the 2015 off-season.

Forecast: 3rd in NL West

San Diego Padres

2015: 74-88, 4th

Acquisitions: Envel De Los Santos, Nelson Ward, Carlos Asuaje, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen, Manuel Margot, Drew Pomeranz, Jose Torres, Jabari Blash, Christian Bethancourt, Carlos Villanueva, Alexei Ramirez

Key Transaction: Trading Craig Kimbrel

Off-Season Grade: B-

Analysis: After the splash they made last winter just like the Mariners and White Sox, everyone (me included) thought the Padres were going to skyrocket in 2015, but instead the exploded on the launch pad, just like the Mariners and White Sox. Unlike the others, they've decided to sell while the selling is good, and dumped their bullpen for prospects and projects. They won't win, but this will help their rebuild.

Forecast: 4th in NL West

San Francisco Giants

2015: 84-78, 2nd

Acquisitions: Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Denard Span

Key Transaction: Signing Johnny Cueto

Off-Season Grade: A-

Analysis: They've done the most with the least (if you can call boatloads of hundred-dollar bills the least). In three moves, they've landed two top flight starters and a elite centerfielder (when healthy). They've gone all in for 2016, which is wise, considering that since 2009 they are 3-0 in the World Series in even years, and don't even make it in odd years.

Forecast: 1st in NL West

Playoff Predictions

Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Royals, White Sox

Nationals, Cubs, Giants, Cardinals, Diamondbacks

Proposed DH Solution

There are multiple angles in the DH debate. So-called baseball purists claim that any change to the game makes it somehow less spectacular than it's original, unaltered state (as if it's still anywhere close to the same game played in the 1860's). By and large, fans of American League teams seem to support a unilateral DH rule, as it wouldn't really affect their teams except when they play in NL parks, and it would only impact them positively anyway. Many NL team fans cite their love of the advanced late-game strategy that the lack of a DH demands; managers must weigh the pros of a pinch hitter against the cons of removing a starting pitcher who is performing well. Some people want their to be a universal rule either way, by either removing the AL DH or implementing the rule in the NL. 

I think there is a way to satisfy everyone's joneses.

The rule would be the same for both leagues, and implemented at the same time, at the start of a season (obviously spring training would be the time to work out the kinks).

At the start of every game, one player from each team shall be named as the Designated Hitter (DH). The DH is eligible to be placed in any spot in the order at the presentation of lineups. The DH will hit for one defensive player, called the Designated Fielder (DF), who shall also be named at the presentation of the lineups. The DH will take the turn at bat of the DF every time his spot in the line up comes up, UNTIL such time that the DF is removed from the game for any reason. From that point forward, whatever player replaces the DF in the field shall take the next turn at bat for that spot in the order, and the DH becomes ineligible for the rest of the game. Alternately, if the manager knows they are going to be lifting the pitcher soon, they can move the DH into the field, forcing the pitcher to now be considered a batter, as is currently the rule.

Example: Chicago White Sox designate Jose Abreu as the DH, and he will be hitting third for starting pitcher Jose Quintana, who is the DF. After LF Melky Cabrera, batting second, makes the last out in the bottom of the 5th, Abreu is due up in the bottom of the 6th, but in the TOP of the 6th, Quintana runs into trouble. The manager now faces the dilemma of losing Abreu's bat in favor of getting Quintana out of the game before he gives up too many hits. The manager elects to replace Quintana with a relief pitcher, Matt Albers. In a straight substitution scenario, Albers would now take not only Quintana's place on the mound, but Abreu's third spot in the lineup as well, batting next in the upcoming inning. Alternately, the manager may wish to employ a double switch, putting Leury Garcia in LF, batting in the third spot, and putting Albers into the 2nd spot in the lineup, which is now vacated by Melky Cabrera. Or, if the manager knows he is going to replace Quintana, he can move Abreu to 1B, at which point starting 1B Adam LaRoche, who was batting fifth, becomes ineligible, and Quintana is now considered the fifth hitter.

You get the AL offensive prowess of a DH as long as the starting pitcher is doing well, but once you take him out, the NL style strategy takes over. You can, with creative use of substitutions, keep pitchers from ever coming to bat in many games, at the risk of emptying your bench, but it still requires a keen strategic mind not only in substitutions, but in creating your lineup as well (if your DH is likely to be replaced by a pitcher (or utility player in a double switch) at some point, are you really going to bat him fourth every game?). It would also discourage managers from using their most potent bat as a DH on a regular basis, in that the DH will likely be pulled after two at bats.

2015 MLB Playoff Picture: Abstract Edition

First off, let's take a look at the 2015 predictions that my intern, Predict-O-Bot 2000, made for the 2015 season:

The National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers - 91-71
San Diego Padres - 86-76
San Francisco Giants - 83-80
Colorado Rockies - 71-91
Arizona Diamondbacks - 63-99

The National League Central
Pittsburgh Pirates  - 89-73
St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76
Milwaukee Brewers - 86-76
Cincinnati Reds - 74-88
Chicago Cubs - 73-89

The National League East
Washington Nationals - 94-68
Miami Marlins - 83-79
New York Mets - 83-79
Atlanta Braves - 72-90
Philadelphia Phillies - 66-96

The American League West
Seattle Mariners - 90-72
Texas Rangers - 84-78
Oakland Athletics - 82-80
Los Angeles Angels - 81-81
Houston Astros - 73-89

The American League Central
Chicago White Sox - 87-75
Detroit Tigers - 86-76
Kansas City Royals - 85-77
Cleveland Indians - 83-79
Minnesota Twins - 71-91

The American League East
Boston Red Sox - 91-71
Toronto Blue Jays - 86-76
New New York Yankees - 83-79
Tampa Bay Rays - 79-83
Baltimore Orioles - 75-87

I'm so tempted to blame these on my intern, Predict-O-Bot 2000, but A.) I don't have an intern, and B.) if I did invent a robot intern, I'd name it something more clever than Predict-O-Bot 2000. No, this was simply a complete debacle, and it came from my own noggin.

The only thing I pretty much nailed was the Los Angeles Dodgers winning the NL West with a just-above-90 win season (within one game, that's pretty good). Other than that, I didn't pick a single division winner correctly. In the AL, Chicago and Seattle finished 4th in their divisions, and Boston finished LAST. Two of the teams I picked to finish last in their divisions (Chicago and Houston) earned Wildcard berths. The Twins were my pick for joke of the AL, but in reality they were in contention right up until the last days, and were one of the last two teams eliminated from the post season race. The Nationals, my pick to win the World Series, didn't make the playoffs. I even predicted a three way tie for two of the Wildcard spots in the NL, but in reality, the five teams in the playoffs took the spots quite expeditiously.

So yeah, I blew it. Now that MLB has narrowed the field to ten teams (pretty much putting the bumpers up at the bowling alley), I'll take a crack at playoff predictions.

NL Wildcard Series - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs - Pirates
NL Division Series - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pirates in 5
NL Division Series - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets - Dodgers in 5
NL Championship Series - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Dodgers in 6

AL Wildcard Series - New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros - Astros
AL Division Series - Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros - Royals in 4
AL Division Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers - Blue Jays in 3
AL Championship Series - Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays in 6

World Series - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Dodgers in 6

Champion - Los Angeles Dodgers

The Smart Centipede: Sports Edition Major League Baseball 2015 Prediction Show Thing Deal!

Greetings, sports fan (I assume I am down to one follower with my inactivity. Thanks, Tom Anderson!). Those who know me know that when it comes to sports, my greatest passion is reserved for America's Pastime. No, not extreme couponing. And, until the movement I started gains enough momentum, it's not rooting for two Kardashians to tumble down a flight of stairs like Bruce Willis and Andreas Wisniewski in Die Hard. It's baseball.

Now that spring training is underway, I am going to breakdown the leagues and make my bold predictions for the 2015 season. Full disclosure: I am, as many know, a Chicago White Sox fan, and they have made bold moves this off-season, so my view where they are concerned should be taken with a grain of pepper (at my doctor's suggestion, I am trying to cut back on salt). But I tried here to make predictions based on logic.

The National League West

The biggest news of the off-season was the complete rebuild of the San Diego Padres that unfolded over the course of a few December days during the winter meetings. It seemed like every few minutes the Padres had dealt yet another player. In total, they've replaced 75% of their starting lineup (maybe more, if Yonder Alonso ends up not being their best choice at 1B) and they capped off an already strong rotation with the best free agent pitcher (who's name doesn't rhyme with "molester" or... um... "Schmerzer") in James Shields. Will their new lineup produce runs at spacious Petco Park? That seems to be the question I just asked.

The Los Angeles Dodgers weren't content to rest on their laurels, however, and they went ahead and shook their up their defense up the middle and adapting more of a speed over power approach. Eternal Phillie Jimmy Rollins is now in Dodger Blue at shortstop and atop their lineup, and prospect Joc Pederson emerging from a formerly crammed outfield to see if his minor league numbers (33 HR, 30 SB) can play at the top level. Problem? They still have Juan Uribe at 3B, a .257 hitter on the back 9 of his career, and they need consistent production from Carl Crawford, who hasn't played 130 games since his first year out of Tampa Bay.

The San Francisco Giants seem to be in a perpetual cycle of failing in odd years, and winning championships in even years. They lost Pablo Sandoval and replaced him with Casey McGehee. They lost Mike Morse and replaced him with Nori Aoki. They lost Hunter Pence for six weeks and replaced him with whatever dude will be back on the bench in six weeks and a day. They owe their 2014 championship to the improbable heroics of Madison Bumgarner, which can't really be continued for any kind of extended period of time. The 3-5 spots in their projected rotation are Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson, and Tim Lincecum, which is great if they are trying to go back and retroactively win the 2008 World Series.

5.09. This is the ERA of the scheduled number two in the Colorado Rockies rotation, Jordan Lyles. The biggest question about the Rockies seems to be when, not if, they will trade Troy Tulowitzki to the Mets. Their lineup will not produce anywhere near enough runs to balance out the terrible pitching. Keep in mind, the team leader in home runs last year was Charlie Blackmon, who lead the team with 19. NINETEEN, in a ballpark lauded as one of the best hitters parks in the majors. That's what we call a Rocky Mountain Low.

People are calling the Arizona Diamondbacks the worst team in baseball. I'm not here to argue that.
Paul Goldschmidt will be the best player never to win an MVP if he continues to play for Arizona. If Hellickson can become what scouts originally thought he could become, this team can contend... for fourth place in the NL West. This team couldn't find a wild card in an UNO deck.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 91-71
San Diego Padres - 86-76
San Francisco Giants - 83-80
Colorado Rockies - 71-91
Arizona Diamondbacks - 63-99

The National League Central

The St. Louis Cardinals are perennial contenders, but they also have perennial question marks every spring training. This year it's Wacha, who needs to have a solid 2015 for the Cards to contend. Their only significant offensive addition is Jason Hayward, who has yet to live up to the potential that the Atlanta Braves saw in him. With John Lackey as their number three, they are going to miss Shelby Miller, who went to Atlanta to get Hayward.

The Brewers had one of the worst collapses in recent memory, going 9-22 down the stretch to choke away a late August division lead and miss the playoffs. The offense is solid, and the bitter memories of last season should spur them to win a few more games down the stretch. Lucroy has become a viable every day player, and the young Jimmy Nelson has people talking. If Lyin' Ryan Braun can return to MVP form, so long as Davis and Gomez don't take a step backwards, they'll have one of the best outfields in... well, in the Wisconsin area, anyway.

Meanwhile, in Steel-town, the Pirates are here to stay. After twenty years of sub-.500 baseball, Andrew McCutchen has delivered the Pirates to two consecutive post-season appearances, and they're ready to take the next step. Gregory Polanco joins McCutchen and Starling Marte in the outfield while Pedro Alvarez shift across the diamond to 1B where hopefully the lack of defensive pressure will allow him to unleash his full power at the plate. Gerrit Cole looks poised to become what the organization envisioned when they drafted him first overall four seasons ago.

Todd Frazier won the Triple Crown for the Cincinnati Reds last year. Todd Frazier. On a team with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips. I think Phillips still has the potential for the 18 HR he has put up in three of the last four years, and Billy Hamilton gives them a huge threat at the top of the lineup. It's the pitching, man. Something's gotta be done about the pitching. You can't win a division with one amazing starter (Cueto), one dynamite closer (Chapman) and a wad of crap in-between.

There's always next year. Isn't that the Cubs mantra? They are on the cusp of being a true threat to this division. It just won't happen this year. The addition of Jon Lester, the diamond of this year's free agent crop, is the best thing to happen to North Chicago in a long time. The rotation is being heralded by some as the best in the division, and the offense is full of monsters waiting to strike with Soler, Rizzo, Castro, and Bryant all being credible threats. But it won't turn on a dime, and they ARE still the Cubs. This is the last year they'll have to wait 'til next year.

Pittsburgh Pirates  - 89-73
St. Louis Cardinals - 86-76
Milwaukee Brewers - 86-76
Cincinnati Reds - 74-88
Chicago Cubs - 73-89

The National League East

Max Scherzer was given $210 million over 7 years by the Washington Nationals. And he is considered, by some, to be a third starter in the Nats rotation. When you're 18-5 with 252 K's and a 3.15 ERA and you're slotted BEHIND two others, you're in a pretty good situation. Not only to the Nats have a juggernaut rotation, but they have a monster core to their lineup with Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon. It's rumored that Desmond will be gone after this season, but he'll still be there this season, and the Nats should beat all comers.

The Miami Marlins have made some bold moves as well, snagging lead-off dynamo Dee Gordon, who I predict will put on a show to remember competing with the Reds Billy Hamilton to win the 2015 stolen base crown. They also added some pop with Michael Morse, infield versatility with Martin Prado, and a rifle in the rotation with Mat Latos. And best of all, they will hopefully get a full season of Giancarlo Stanton, which could mean 40 HR, and even 50 is not out of the question.

The Atlanta Braves are a very confusing team. It seems like they are making a run at the playoffs signing Nick Markakis, A.J. Pierzynski, Jonny Gomes and Jason Grilli, but they are also signaling surrender by trading away Prado, Hayward, Upton and Evan Gattis, all of whom one would think would enhance their chances of winning. They're circling the drain. Expect them to trade Craig Kimbrel by July and begin the rebuild in earnest.

The New York Mets have Matt Harvey back from Tommy John surgery, but they're going to be terrified of over-using him. Their line-up has David Wright, Lucas Duda, and a whole lot of questions. Can Curtis Granderson still produce? Can Wilmer Flores play short? Can Juan Lagares earn the starts in CF? Can Jacob deGrom follow up his Rookie of the Year performance? Can Bartolo Colon still fit into a major league uniform?

I am going to dedicate the entirety of the space I would normally speak about the Phillies strengths and weaknesses to call out Chase Utley. The team is going nowhere fast, yet Utley will not waive his no-trade clause to allow them to move one of the few high-value chips they have left (a veteran 2B who can still rake). If he is under any illusions that he can still bring any glory to Philly, he is sadly mistaken and putting way too much faith in Ryan Howard (a hard-luck case with a contract that can't be moved) Jonathan Papelbon (a clubhouse cancer with a contract that can't be moved) and Cole Hamels (a legitimate ace that, for lack of another team surrendering it's entire farm system, cannot be moved).

Washington Nationals - 94-68
Miami Marlins - 83-79
New York Mets - 83-79
Atlanta Braves - 72-90
Philadelphia Phillies - 66-96

The American League West

The Oakland Athletics could have been in the big show last season. They had a 7-3 lead in the eighth inning of the Wildcard Game, and one of the hottest pitchers in the game on the mound in Jon Lester. We know how that ended. Now, they no longer have Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Donaldson, Derek Norris or Brandon Moss. In their place are Ben Zobrist, Billy Butler, Tyler Clippard, Brett Lawrie, Marcus Semien and Ike Davis. There's a drop-off. Scott Kazmir is the number 2 here, folks. Things are shaky in Northern California, and I don't mean the fault lines.

Meanwhile, 373 miles South (if you stay on I-5), there are some Angels who have fallen, and none so far as Josh Hamilton. Sadly, his relapse with cocaine means he'll return from the disabled list and dovetail right into a suspension of anywhere from 15 games (player's union hopes) to an entire year (considering his past history, I believe he is being considered a four-time offender). He is only one of many who have not lived up to the hopes that Los Angelinos had when the organization opened up it's pockets. Hamilton ($17 million), Albert Pujols ($23 million) C.J. Wilson ($16.5 million) all failed up to produce the numbers they were being paid for in 2014. In a few years, it will be Trout surrounded by a bunch of guppies.

The injury bug crushed a good deal of hope in Arlington last season, and already this season it has bit deep and hard, with Yu Darvish facing season-and-a-half-ending Tommy John surgery. Prince Fielder missed most of 2014 with neck problems, after having missed no more than five (5!) games in any one season since becoming an everyday player. Darvish, Shin-Soo Choo, Derek Holland, and Jurickson Profar all missed significant time. If Fielder can return to form, he should push Adrian Beltre (last year's team homerun leader with only 19, and that's in a hitter's ballpark) to produce some more scoring opportunities for Elvis Andrus (providing he can get on base more than, like, 30% of the time).

Things are looking up in Houston, too. The bullpen is much improved, but the rotation is still a big fat question mark. They have a deluge of young players coming into their own, like George Springer, Jake Marisnick, Jon Singleton, and Luis Valbuena providing decent power. Jose Altuve is the speed, with 56 SB's to go with a robust .341 batting average (best in the Majors in 2014). But Houston, we have a difficult situation that needs a resolution (you thought I was going to say "problem", didn't you?). Jose Altuve had 104 more hits than the next highest contributor, Matt Dominguez. They had only three players with more than 300 plate appearances that hit higher than .240, and Dexter Fowler is gone now, replaced by Colby Rasmus (.225 in 376 PA).

Seattle will reap the rewards of everyone else's ruin. Robinson Cano (.314 BA, 20+ HR potential). Nelson Cruz (40 HR). Kyle Seager (25 HR). Mike Zunino (22 HR). Felix Hernandez (2.14 ERA, 15 W, 248 K). Taijuan Walker (who is one of the top prospects in Seattle, if not the majors). Arguably the best bullpen in the majors. They will, by virtue of the rest of the division taking two steps back, be left standing in the front of the pack.

Seattle Mariners - 90-72
Texas Rangers - 84-78
Oakland Athletics - 82-80
Los Angeles Angels - 81-81
Houston Astros - 73-89

The American League Central

"Cinderella story... out of nowhere..." The immortal words of Bill Murray's Carl Spackler in Caddyshack certainly apply to the 2014 Kansas City Royals. After 29 years of irrelevance, they made a run at the AL Central and fell a game short. But it was good enough for a Wildcard berth, and they and they made the most improbable run in recent post-season history, sweeping two rounds and taking the Every-Even-Year World Champion San Francisco Giants to seven nail-biting games. Problem is, they seem to have been playing over their heads. They have little power (dead last in HR (95) in 2014) little patience (dead last in walks (380) in 2014) and their pitching doesn't have much punch (25th in the majors with 1168 K's in 2014). It was more of a miracle than anything, and I don't see it happening again.

Meanwhile, offense has overtaken automobiles as Detroit's primary export. In 2014, the Tigers lead the majors in Batting Average (.277), Hits (1,557), Doubles (325), and RBI's (731) and were second in On Base Percentage (.331), and Slugging Percentage (.426) and Total Bases (2,399). Seven of their nine regular position players had double digits in HR. On the other side, however, David Price looked shaky after being traded from Tampa Bay, Justin Verlander has had two sub-par years in a row, they lost Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez (their number 3 starter) has only had one dominant year (2013, 14-8, 2.57 ERA) and closer Joe Nathan put up the second highest ERA of his career last season (4.81). Can the offensive juggernaut (which is not guaranteed to have their two biggest contributors (Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera) in the Opening Day Line-up) make up for that?

I'm kinda stat-heavy in this portion of the preview, so I'll take a moment to reflect on the Minnesota Twins. Hey, did you know Joe Mauer is still playing? Neither did anyone else outside of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. Who are these guys? I think the transition to an outdoor stadium has left them homesick for the garbage-bag dome. 2B Brian Dozier and LF Oswaldo Arcia (two positions traditionally not known for power production) combined for one third (43) of the team's HR total (128). I weep for Torii Hunter. This isn't how he should end his career. Phil Hughes believes, though. They're paying him so much he'll believe anything they say.

The Cleveland Indians went out and got Brandon Moss from the A's as part of Oakland's "Power Purge." And Gavin Floyd. And that's it. They had fewer transactions than a Ferguson Police Benevolence Association Fundraiser. They got noticeably better when Jason Giambi retired. So, they're working on a "if it ain't broke" philosophy. Problem being that they finished 3rd in 2014 in a tough division that only got tougher. I am, in all honesty, disappointed; if the Tribe had a chance at the World Series this season, I'd have a chance at being the greatest prophet since Nostradamus.

"Well the South Side of Chicago is the baddest part of town," sang Jim Croce. He was talking about Leroy Brown, but he may well have been singing about the 2015 White Sox. Jose Abreu demolished the league last season in his Rookie of the Year campaign, belting 36 HR despite missing 14 games with an ankle injury. Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Abreu, Adam LaRoche, and Avisail Garcia could be the best 1-5 in baseball. Alexei Ramirez, when he's on (i.e. not 2012-2013) he is an excellent hitter for the 6 hole. But now you have to look at 7-9. Gordon Beckham was so bad they traded him away in 2014. Then they went and replaced him with... Gordon Beckham? Seriously, was there no one better available? And can the White Sox really be all in with Conor Gillaspe at 3B? Or will Matt Davidson hit his weight and pop 25 HR? And who will be better, Tyler Flowers or Geovany Soto? If they have a decisive winner at each of those position battles, the Sox can take the division in '15.

Chicago White Sox - 87-75
Detroit Tigers - 86-76
Kansas City Royals - 85-77
Cleveland Indians - 83-79
Minnesota Twins - 71-91

The American League East

Everyone says the Boston Red Sox are one ace away from running away from the AL East. I'm not sure I'd drink that Kool Aid just yet. Sure, they've added Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez... and not much else of consequence. Dustin Pedroia had injury issues last season, and a bounce-back season is all but essential to the Red Sox succeeding this year. If they land Cole Hamels in a trade, they will indeed have a legitimate ace. But for me, it's more a question of the Rusney Castillo / Mookie Betts competition in CF. If one of them dominates the spring and takes it into the regular season, the lineup could be one of the strongest in the diminished AL East.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a pretty big injury problem, too. They signed Michael Saunders to be a solid piece of their lineup... and then lost him for half the season to a leg injury. Wait, recent updates state he will only miss perhaps a few games, having made amazing progress! Great! Not so great for Marcus Strohman, last year's phenom who was poised to do big things in the Jays rotation this year, but will now miss the season with a torn ACL. That's bad news with a silver lining, however, as knee problems are not so worrisome for a pitcher as arm or shoulder problems would be. This means, however, that one of their bullpen now gets pushed into the rotation, and given that the outfield is razor thin, that bullpen will be hard pressed to keep up with all the work they'll be getting, and look to be one of the weakest in the league.

The Baltimore Orioles have lost two vital pieces. They lost Nelson Cruz' 40 HRs, and they lost Nick Markakis. But they should get back Manny Machado, who only played roughly half of their games last season. And Chris Davis' 2014: an aberration, or return to reality? This guy hit 53 HR in one season two years ago. His career high before that: 33. What will he provide this season? They are relying on a closer who had never put up a sub-4.00 ERA until last season, and not much else. And they've got the ultimate flash in the pan, Ubaldo Jimenez, in their rotation. The AL East used to be the toughest division in the league, but it has fallen on hard times, and these birds will be indicative of that.

Tampa Bay went on a fire sale this off-season, sending away many of the biggest names they had; Jeremy Hellickson, Joel Peralta, Sean Rodriguez, Ryan Hanigan, Matt Joyce, former phenom Will Myers, Ben Zobrist, and Yunel Escobar, all gone. Yet the pieces they got back somehow seemed to make sense, the more you look at it. Steven Souza, Rene Rivera, Kevin Jepsen, John Jaso, as well as free agent addition Asdrubal Cabrera... somehow the Rays don't look much worse than they did a year ago. If Drew Smyly steps up, Kevin Kiermaier proves ready to start and Nick Franklin finally arrives, Evan Longoria and Demsond Jennings could find themselves surrounded by a capable lineup.  

Alex Rodriguez. Jacoby Ellsbury. Carlos Beltran. Chase Headley. Mark Teixiera. Brian McCann. C.C. Sabathia. The Ghosts of Baseball Past. If they can all get back to the forms they once displayed, this lineup would be one of the most feared in the world. McCann actually could be the most likely of these to have a breakout season, as he has been working to use the whole field in his approach at the plate, rather than the pull-and-pray method he'd taken up in his first season in the Bronx. The rotation is full of questions, the most pressing being the health of Masahiro Tanaka's arm. And shortstop for the Post-Jeter era of the Yankees? Didi Gregorious, who's bat will make fans remember (fondly) Andy Stankowicz.

Boston Red Sox - 91-71
Toronto Blue Jays - 86-76
New New York Yankees - 83-79
Tampa Bay Rays - 79-83
Baltimore Orioles - 75-87

Playoffs

NL Wildcard Play-In 1: Cardinals @ Padres
NL Wildcard Play-In 2: Cardinals @ Brewers
NL Wildcard: Brewers @ Padres
AL Wildcard: Tigers @ Blue Jays

NLDS: Padres @ Nationals
NLDS: Pirates @ Dodgers

ALDS: Tigers @ Red Sox
ALDS: White Sox @ Mariners

NLCS: Dodgers @ Nationals

ALCS: Mariners @ Red Sox

World Series: Mariners @ Nationals

Champion: Nationals

The interesting thing here is that back in 2010, a big deal was made about the match up being a first time World Series team (Texas Rangers) against a team that had one of the longest droughts in sports (San Francisco Giants), and I countered that it had already happened five years before, when the match up was a first time World Series team (Houston Astros) against a team that had one of the longest droughts in sports (Chicago White Sox). I then predicted that, based on the perceived pattern, the 2015 matchup would be a first time World Series team (either Washington Nationals or Seattle Mariners) against a team that had one of the longest droughts in sports (either Cleveland Indians or Chicago Cubs). Granted, the Cubs and Indians are extreme long shots this year, but the Mariners have made great strides and the Nationals now are the odds on favorite to win the Series this year.