As details continue to emerge regarding the 2017 Astros' sign-stealing scandal, Major League Baseball and its fans are of varied opinion about how severe the penalties need to be. But the one thing that almost every one of them have in common is the belief that there should be a penalty for it. Stealing signs undermines the integrity of the game. For a sport that has been rocked by the cheating scandal of the 1919 Chicago White Sox and swore "never again," this kind of thing is a huge black eye and a test of their credibility.
Many feel that the players, coaches and executives involved should be fined and suspended, even though many of them have moved on to other teams. This has the potential to penalize teams that were not involved, however. Alex Cora, a bench coach for the Astros in 2017, is now the manager of the Boston Red Sox. Why should the Red Sox be punished for a wrong-doing another team perpetrated?*
(*Oy, did that not age well. The Red Sox are now implicated in a sign stealing scandal taking place in 2018, and once again, at the heart of it, is Alex Cora.)
The only way to be fair in all of this is to tailor the penalties to the individuals without interfering with their new positions. Fines, then would be the primary factor. I suggest that MLB fine all parties involved the exact amount they earned as a World Series share, as well as 10% of their 2017 salary. This retroactively punishes them without affecting the team they currently play for. They should also be forced to turn in their World Series Championship rings. Why should they get to keep a trophy they didn't earn?
As far as the Astros organization, it's a harder case to call. Yes, the organization had to have known what was going on, given the technology and complexity involved, but to penalize them draft picks and international pool money, revoke any playoff eligibility, and/or retroactively strip them of their world series title not only penalizes the team, it penalizes the fanbase as well. The fans did nothing wrong, and although you can say they benefited (tangentially) from the scheme, it's tough to say they gained anything but pride.
However, if you are okay with the fans suffering as collateral damage, then let's not hold back on the punishment. If you really want to send a message to Houston and any other team that this sort of thing will not be tolerated, then I propose you allow each team in the league, once per series played against the Astros in Houston, the ability to create a run out of nothing, at the time of their choosing.
Example: The Mariners, down one to the Astros in the top of the ninth, decide to exercise their option. They add the run, and the game is tied. If the pitcher currently on the mound was an Astro in 2017, then the run counts as an earned run; if not, the run is unearned. All further stats are also considered; if the closer was a 'Stro in '17, he gets a blown save. If the teams are tied in the ninth, and the opponent elects to add the run, and they win the game with a shutout 9th, then the pitcher gets the loss. If, at the end of the series, the opponent has not used the run, it gets added onto the box score of the last game in the series.
You might say that teams that divisional teams have a greater advantage in this scenario, but they also played more games against the Astros in 2017, and arguably suffered more from the cheating. You may think it will create a glut of fictional runs, but if the Astros are good enough, they will be up by more than one for many of these games. There is an infinitesimal chance that the phantom runs never decide a game, in which case the organization would escape any real punishment. But let's look at 2017's results to see how it might affect them in 2020:
In 2017, the Astros played 5 extra inning games at home (2-3), and 12 one-run non-extras games at home (7-5). If the same thing happened in 2020, they would likely lose those all 5 of those games before they even got to extra innings (unless the opponents chose not to exercise the phantom run). Assuming those 7 one run victories games all went to extras, let's say the Astros are good enough to win 3 of them in extra innings anyway. The Astros record would have 6 fewer wins. If they were a 101-61 team (like 2017) they'd actually be 95-67 (which, if these penalties were retroactively put in place against the 2017 Astros, they would have still won the division handily, as the Rangers were in 2nd place with a losing record (80-82).
Alternatively, the Astros could forfeit their DH privilege for 2020. Make the pitchers hit. The opponent can still use a DH, but not the Astros.
Saturday, November 30, 2019
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Smart Centipede 2019 MLB Season Prediction Show Thing Deal
We're back to take a look at how the 2019 MLB Season will shake out. I am so sick of seeing the teams shown in the same order in every article on Yahoo, AL East -> West, NL East -> West. So I'm flipping the script. DEAL WITH IT.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers -
2018 Record (Finish): 92-71 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 94-68 (1st)
Notes: The Dodgers need to be really scared right now. Clayton Kershaw has been having problems and they seem to be coming out of nowhere. Suddenly, he wasn't feeling right, and suddenly, he wasn't pitching, and suddenly, he isn't going to be ready by opening day. Doesn't this whole thing just smack of the collapse of a promising career? I hope I am wrong, I've been digging the Dodgers renaissance as of late, but to quote every single Star Wars movie ever: "I have a bad feeling about this."
2019 SC Prediction: 95-67 (1st)
Colorado Rockies -
2018 Record (Finish): 91-72 (2nd; NL WC2)
2019 Pecota Projections: 85-77 (2nd)
Notes: The Rockies just signed Arenado to a HUGE extension, which means they're either set for the next ten years, or he's about to collapse. The Rox don't have a ton of depth, but the players they do have starting are all high quality, and the pitchers look poised for big seasons at the same time. Should be interesting, at the very least, to see if they can get back to Rocktober!
2019 SC Prediction: 89-73 (2nd)
San Diego Padres -
2018 Record (Finish): 66-96 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 79-83 (4th)
Notes: The Padres are in first place since signing Manny Machado to a ten year albatross they'll want to shed in 2023. Sadly, the games in Arizona don't count (unless it's a D-Backs home game played after- shut up, you know what I mean) and the Padres still play at Petco Park, which is fitting because the fans are often left looking as disappointed as a stray on the verge of being euthanized. Manny has a lot on his shoulders this season. If they spend more than they already have on players to help him, they may have a shot at a championship... but San Diego has never struck me as a franchise that was willing to empty the bank for a run at sustained excellence.
2019 SC Prediction: 77-85 (3rd)
San Francisco Giants -
2018 Record (Finish): 73-89 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 73-89 (5th)
Notes: What the Hell happened to the Giants?! They won World Series three times in the past ten years, does anyone remember that? Now I feel like every time they take the field a landslide is going to just bury the entire city. They are a cautionary tale, folks, but for the life of me I can't figure out the lesson. The only thing going for them is they don't owe Bryce Harper $330 million dollars.
2019 SC Prediction: 75-87 (4th)
Arizona Diamondbacks -
2018 Record (Finish): 82-80 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 81-81 (3rd)
Notes: Godley will have to be to keep them from collapsing. The loss of A.J. Pollack and replacement in the form of Adam Jones is a steep drop. The loss of Paul Goldschmidt means David Peralta is the only guy left with any kind of decent pop. Definitely a down-stroke in the cycle for these guys. Upside: At least they still have Zack Greinke. Downside: They still have to pay Zack Greinke.
2019 SC Prediction: 74-88 (5th)
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers -
2018 Record (Finish): 96-67 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 88-74 (1st)
Notes: The Brew Crew came out of nowhere to win the Central last season. They still have a lot of powerful pieces in play, and the Central isn't exactly the AL East, so they should still do reasonably well, but not as well as last season, record wise, anyway. They still have Ryan Braun, who is a disgusting cheater who thinks getting off on a technicality is the same thing as being proven innocent (douchebag), so I'm always hoping he'll pull a Bump Bailey running after a fly ball, but Yelich is the true star of that outfield now.
2019 SC Prediction: 90-72 (1st)
Chicago Cubs -
2018 Record (Finish): 95-68 (2nd, WC1)
2019 Pecota Projections: 78-83 (5th)
Notes: As much as I dislike the Cubs, it's hard to argue what they've done over the past five years. Their rebuild is the blueprint that all other franchises need to at least consult if they hope to succeed. They still have a stacked lineup, a stacked rotation, and the second best baseball hot-dogs in the Windy City. If they underachieve justa tiny bit in every facet of the game, they might lose the Central... and isn't that just the most "Cubs" thing possible?
2019 SC Prediction: 86-76 (2nd)
Cincinnati Reds -
2018 Record (Finish): 67-95 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 81-81 (3rd)
Notes: Yasiel Mania hits Cincinnati! The former outspoken Dodger is now an outspoken Red. They also still have Joey Votto, a cyborg created in the year 2983 and sent back in time to destroy baseballs, so they have a shot at winning some games, but their top starter is Sonny Gray. Three years ago that would have been awesome. Now... not so much. Hopefully he (and Matt Kemp) will return to form and Puig will drop the shenanigans he's known so well for.
2019 SC Prediction: 81-81 (3rd)
Pittsburgh Pirates -
2018 Record (Finish): 82-79 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 80-82 (4th)
Notes: The Buccos have a shiny new number one this season: Chris Archer! They also have Starling Marte, and... uhhh... wait, I had it here just a minute ago... where the heck did I put it? I just saw it... hmm. No. No, I guess they don't have much else. Sorry, Pittsburgh. I love your football team, and your city is awesome, but the new longest suffering NL fanbase (that has won at least one WS) will have to wait at least one more season.
2019 SC Prediction: 80-82 (4th)
St. Louis Cardinals -
2018 Record (Finish): 88-74 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 86-76 (2nd)
Notes: Paul Goldschmidt is the best player to play at 1B for the Cardinals since Albert Pujols. He's a huge get for them. They also have a solid starting roster... so why can't they hit this spring? The new life Goldy will breathe into St. Louis is more like a last gasp. The longest reigning champion of the "World's Most Overrated Catcher" Award is back for his nine-hundredth season with the Cards this year. The team just seems like a mess. They'll stumble and fall out of the gate this season.
2019 SC Prediction: 76-86 (5th)
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies -
2018 Record (Finish): 80-82 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 89-73 (T-1st)
Notes: Bryce Harper! J.T. Realmuto! Jean Segura! Andrew McCutchen! David Robertson! Rhys Hoskins (back in the infield)! Is there any doubt which team made the biggest splash in the off-season? They have a wicked one-two punch at the top of the rotation, and the most improved line-up in baseball. The worst fan-base in sports gets another shot at a title they won't deserve!
2019 SC Prediction: 97-65 (1st)
Atlanta Braves -
2018 Record (Finish): 90-72 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 85-77 (4th)
Notes: IF Julio Teheran can return to form... IF Dansby Swanson starts to live up to his awesome potential... IF Ronald Acuna follows up his amazing rookie season with something even better... IF Josh Donaldson can rediscover his swing... IF Ozzie Albies can take the next step... the Braves have a shot at finishing second in the NL East. They'll probably finish no worse than third anyway, even IF they don't do all those things.
2019 SC Prediction: 88-74 (2nd)
Washington Nationals -
2018 Record (Finish): 82-80 (2nd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 89-73 (T-1st, WC1)
Notes: I'm sorry, there's no way a team finishes seven games better without Bryce Harper in their lineup than they did with. The sad thing is, they still have an amazing team without him, but it just makes no logical sense that they will succeed so quickly after losing the face of their franchise to a rival team in the same division.
2019 SC Prediction: 86-76 (3rd)
New York Mets -
2018 Record (Finish): 77-85 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 87-75 (3rd)
Notes: They still have one of the best rotations in the NL, if not all of baseball. However, they still have no one who will give them run support. If Robinson Cano is the answer, you really have to wonder how tough the question was. Bonus prediction: The Mets will have the most number of 1-0 losses this season.
2019 SC Prediction: 80-82 (4th)
Miami Marlins -
2018 Record (Finish): 63-98 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 67-95 (5th)
Notes: The Marlins have, yet again, gutted their team. Of the players currently on their roster from last season, the HR leader is Starlin Castro, who hit 12. He also leads the same subset of players with 8 stolen bases. Bonus predictions: there are 35 players who will hit more HR by themselves than the Marlins entire team in 2019. Trea Turner will also out-steal the Marlins, 59 to 32.
2019 SC Prediction: 68-94 (5th, possibly 6th if the Williamsport Little League Champions are allowed to play in the Majors this season)
AL West -
Houston Astros -
2018 Record (Finish): 103-59 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 98-64 (1st)
Notes: This team is one monster 1B away from an All-Star infield (sorry, Yuli, you look like a pineapple and play like a squash). The rotation is loaded with former, current, and future All-Stars. They still play in the AL West. All signs point to another Division title in Houston.
2019 SC Prediction: 98-64 (1st)
Seattle Mariners -
2018 Record (Finish): 89-73 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 72-90 (4th)
Notes: It seems to me like there are always two possible records for the Mariners: 87-75, or 78-84. I know, it's verifiably not true, but it just seems like it to me. I wish I knew why. This team has a solid lineup and decent pitching, so I think it will lean closer to a good year than a bad, and Ichiro is back, so let's hope they get back to the playoffs for one last surge with him.
2019 SC Prediction: 84-78 (2nd)
Oakland Athletics -
2018 Record (Finish): 97-65 (2nd, WC2)
2019 Pecota Projections: 78-84 (3rd)
Notes: I can't figure out Oakland. I don't know if anyone really can. They should not have even sniffed the playoffs last season. They should be terrible this year. Yet they made last year work, so why not again? Nothing makes sense any more.
2019 SC Prediction: somewhere between 75-87 (T-3rd) and 117-45 (1st).
Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim -
2018 Record (Finish): 80-82 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 80-82 (2nd)
Notes: Mike Trout is about to become the highest paid player in baseball history, finalizing a deal worth $430 million dollars over 12 years. The downside? He has to spend that 12 years with the Angels. The Angels have made the playoffs only once with Trout, losing in 2014's LDS to the eventual World Champion Royals. This deal is so insanely expensive that it does not help their prospects of signing other quality free-agents to play around him. So in all likelihood, they'll either need to trade him (which might not be possible if there is a no trade clause) or suck for the next 12 years.
2019 SC Prediction: 75-87 (T-3rd)
Texas Rangers -
2018 Record (Finish): 67-95 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 70-92 (5th)
Notes: Dear God, Joey Gallo is listed as their starting centerfielder. Joey Gallo. With the departure of Adrian Beltre, so too goes the last of the fun to be had in Arlington. "The game tonight, is a messed up sight (clap clap clap clap) deep in the heart... of Texas!"
2019 SC Prediction: 66-96 (5th)
AL Central
Cleveland Indians -
2018 Record (Finish): 91-71 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 96-66 (1st)
Notes: The collapse of the Cleveland Indians is coming any day now. I can feel it in my bones. It's inevitable. But when? They are still the class of a weak division, and they'll win just enough to fight off the surging Twins yet again.
2019 SC Prediction: 88-74 (1st)
Minnesota Twins -
2018 Record (Finish): 78-84 (2nd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 82-80 (2nd)
Notes: The Twins are still a mystery. Every season it looks like they will be terrible, yet they keep succeeding. I don't know how they do it, it may be arcane magic. They've got a clubhouse leader in Cruz, who if he stays healthy (and drug-free) should hit another 40 homeruns this season. There are a bunch of questions, but if they answer all of them yes, they have a real shot at upsetting Cleveland this season.
2019 SC Prediction: 87-75 (2nd)
Chicago White Sox -
2018 Record (Finish): 62-100 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 70-92 (4th)
Notes: This off-season, the story has been more about what hasn't been accomplished (signing either of the big name free-agents) than what has been done (not signing either of the big-name free agents, saving money that can be better invested in talent to help the core in 2020). The team is following the blue print laid out by the cross-town rival Cubs, who's own rebuild culminated in a title in 2016. The team still has to deal with a patchwork bullpen which isn't so much a "who's who" as it is a "who's that?" The offense is exciting, but not nearly as exciting is what's coming next year. They'll shock a few this season. I absolutely hate that they are discussing keeping Eloy Jimenez down until his free agency gets pushed back a year; that's more of a Cubs thing to do. Be better than that, White Sox.
2019 SC Prediction: 73-89 (3rd place)
Kansas City Royals -
2018 Record (Finish): 58-104 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 72-90 (3rd)
Notes:If Jorge Soler can figure things out, they might have a shot at slipping past the White Sox. Either way, that's as far as they'll go. Whit Merrifield's gonna be very lonely at the 2019 All-Star game.
2019 SC Prediction: 71-91 (3rd place)
Detroit Tigers -
2018 Record (Finish): 64-98 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 66-96 (5th)
Notes: It's sad to see Miguel Cabrera surrounded by this flotsam and jetsam that Detroit passes off as a major league baseball team. At least Josh Harrison should be fun to watch.
2019 SC Prediction: 64-98 (5th)
AL East -
New York Yankees -
2018 Record (Finish): 100-62 (2nd, WC1)
2019 Pecota Projections: 96-68 (1st)
Notes: This is getting Steinbrenner levels of ridiculousness now. The Yankees were rumored to be heavily in on everyone this off-season, despite the fact they have six outfielders, three shortstops, eight closers, and six number two starters. They ended up with DJ LeMahieu (didn't he win a batting title two years ago?!) as a super-utility guy and have two of the best right fielders in the game (when they were actively courting a third) and picked up a former All-Star level shortstop as a stop gap until their real All-Star shortstop comes back. This team is stacked. If the starting pitching holds up, they will be the team to beat in the AL East.
2019 SC Prediction: 99-63 (1st)
Boston Red Sox -
2018 Record (Finish): 108-54 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 90-72 (2nd, WC1)
Notes: The city of Boston has a very short memory when it comes to sports. They forget that, for the longest time in sports (except for the Celtics), they were a punchline of a very bad joke. Now that Boston has won several Championships (and at least one in all four of the major sports) and are the most successful sporting city in the 21st Century, the city swaggers about as if it has always been sports nirvana, rather than a town where championship dreams go to die. As such, they seem to have forgotten that they need a bullpen to win. They need to replace Craig Kimbrel badly, too bad there isn't someone out there who could do that... except there is; Craig Kimbrel. If they don't do something, they'll fall short this season and get passed by their hated rivals, the Yankees.
2019 SC Prediction: 91-71 (2nd)
Toronto Blue Jays -
2018 Record (Finish): 73-89 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 75-87 (4th)
Notes: A lot of people are sleeping on the Blue Jays, but their team has some pretty decent depth and some kid of a former major leaguer who is already being enshrined in Cooperstown, if you believe the hype. Vladdy Jr. is going to start the year in the minors to work on that pesky "becoming a free agent in 2025" strain the team says he's suffering from. If Marcus Stroman can become the dominant All-Star everyone named Marcus Stroman believes he is, the Jays could be making a surprise push.
2019 SC Prediction: 84-78 (3rd)
Tampa Bay Rays -
2018 Record (Finish): 90-72 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 85-77 (3rd, WC2)
Notes: Tampa Bay has been playing over their heads. They don't have a full rotation, their big pickup has been Mike frikkin Zunino, and they are relying on Avisail Garcia to be competent. I really hope he turns things around, but he was dismal with the White Sox, and I don't see him suddenly flipping the switch at the Trop. Actually, since I started writing this entry, they've picked up Tommy Pham, so they might finish "extra 3rd" which is like 3rd, but with Pizza Hut after the game instead of the soul crushing silence of disappointed parents on the ride home.
2019 SC Prediction: 80-82 (4th)
Baltimore Orioles -
2018 Record (Finish): 47-115 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 58-104 (5th)
Notes: I think it is appropriate that the Orioles had braille jerseys lasts season.
2019 SC Prediction: 50-112 (5th)
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers -
2018 Record (Finish): 92-71 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 94-68 (1st)
Notes: The Dodgers need to be really scared right now. Clayton Kershaw has been having problems and they seem to be coming out of nowhere. Suddenly, he wasn't feeling right, and suddenly, he wasn't pitching, and suddenly, he isn't going to be ready by opening day. Doesn't this whole thing just smack of the collapse of a promising career? I hope I am wrong, I've been digging the Dodgers renaissance as of late, but to quote every single Star Wars movie ever: "I have a bad feeling about this."
2019 SC Prediction: 95-67 (1st)
Colorado Rockies -
2018 Record (Finish): 91-72 (2nd; NL WC2)
2019 Pecota Projections: 85-77 (2nd)
Notes: The Rockies just signed Arenado to a HUGE extension, which means they're either set for the next ten years, or he's about to collapse. The Rox don't have a ton of depth, but the players they do have starting are all high quality, and the pitchers look poised for big seasons at the same time. Should be interesting, at the very least, to see if they can get back to Rocktober!
2019 SC Prediction: 89-73 (2nd)
2018 Record (Finish): 66-96 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 79-83 (4th)
Notes: The Padres are in first place since signing Manny Machado to a ten year albatross they'll want to shed in 2023. Sadly, the games in Arizona don't count (unless it's a D-Backs home game played after- shut up, you know what I mean) and the Padres still play at Petco Park, which is fitting because the fans are often left looking as disappointed as a stray on the verge of being euthanized. Manny has a lot on his shoulders this season. If they spend more than they already have on players to help him, they may have a shot at a championship... but San Diego has never struck me as a franchise that was willing to empty the bank for a run at sustained excellence.
2019 SC Prediction: 77-85 (3rd)
2018 Record (Finish): 73-89 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 73-89 (5th)
Notes: What the Hell happened to the Giants?! They won World Series three times in the past ten years, does anyone remember that? Now I feel like every time they take the field a landslide is going to just bury the entire city. They are a cautionary tale, folks, but for the life of me I can't figure out the lesson. The only thing going for them is they don't owe Bryce Harper $330 million dollars.
2019 SC Prediction: 75-87 (4th)
2018 Record (Finish): 82-80 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 81-81 (3rd)
Notes: Godley will have to be to keep them from collapsing. The loss of A.J. Pollack and replacement in the form of Adam Jones is a steep drop. The loss of Paul Goldschmidt means David Peralta is the only guy left with any kind of decent pop. Definitely a down-stroke in the cycle for these guys. Upside: At least they still have Zack Greinke. Downside: They still have to pay Zack Greinke.
2019 SC Prediction: 74-88 (5th)
Milwaukee Brewers -
2018 Record (Finish): 96-67 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 88-74 (1st)
Notes: The Brew Crew came out of nowhere to win the Central last season. They still have a lot of powerful pieces in play, and the Central isn't exactly the AL East, so they should still do reasonably well, but not as well as last season, record wise, anyway. They still have Ryan Braun, who is a disgusting cheater who thinks getting off on a technicality is the same thing as being proven innocent (douchebag), so I'm always hoping he'll pull a Bump Bailey running after a fly ball, but Yelich is the true star of that outfield now.
2019 SC Prediction: 90-72 (1st)
2018 Record (Finish): 95-68 (2nd, WC1)
2019 Pecota Projections: 78-83 (5th)
Notes: As much as I dislike the Cubs, it's hard to argue what they've done over the past five years. Their rebuild is the blueprint that all other franchises need to at least consult if they hope to succeed. They still have a stacked lineup, a stacked rotation, and the second best baseball hot-dogs in the Windy City. If they underachieve justa tiny bit in every facet of the game, they might lose the Central... and isn't that just the most "Cubs" thing possible?
2019 SC Prediction: 86-76 (2nd)
2018 Record (Finish): 67-95 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 81-81 (3rd)
Notes: Yasiel Mania hits Cincinnati! The former outspoken Dodger is now an outspoken Red. They also still have Joey Votto, a cyborg created in the year 2983 and sent back in time to destroy baseballs, so they have a shot at winning some games, but their top starter is Sonny Gray. Three years ago that would have been awesome. Now... not so much. Hopefully he (and Matt Kemp) will return to form and Puig will drop the shenanigans he's known so well for.
2019 SC Prediction: 81-81 (3rd)
2018 Record (Finish): 82-79 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 80-82 (4th)
Notes: The Buccos have a shiny new number one this season: Chris Archer! They also have Starling Marte, and... uhhh... wait, I had it here just a minute ago... where the heck did I put it? I just saw it... hmm. No. No, I guess they don't have much else. Sorry, Pittsburgh. I love your football team, and your city is awesome, but the new longest suffering NL fanbase (that has won at least one WS) will have to wait at least one more season.
2019 SC Prediction: 80-82 (4th)
St. Louis Cardinals -
2018 Record (Finish): 88-74 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 86-76 (2nd)
Notes: Paul Goldschmidt is the best player to play at 1B for the Cardinals since Albert Pujols. He's a huge get for them. They also have a solid starting roster... so why can't they hit this spring? The new life Goldy will breathe into St. Louis is more like a last gasp. The longest reigning champion of the "World's Most Overrated Catcher" Award is back for his nine-hundredth season with the Cards this year. The team just seems like a mess. They'll stumble and fall out of the gate this season.
2019 SC Prediction: 76-86 (5th)
Philadelphia Phillies -
2018 Record (Finish): 80-82 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 89-73 (T-1st)
Notes: Bryce Harper! J.T. Realmuto! Jean Segura! Andrew McCutchen! David Robertson! Rhys Hoskins (back in the infield)! Is there any doubt which team made the biggest splash in the off-season? They have a wicked one-two punch at the top of the rotation, and the most improved line-up in baseball. The worst fan-base in sports gets another shot at a title they won't deserve!
2019 SC Prediction: 97-65 (1st)
2018 Record (Finish): 90-72 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 85-77 (4th)
Notes: IF Julio Teheran can return to form... IF Dansby Swanson starts to live up to his awesome potential... IF Ronald Acuna follows up his amazing rookie season with something even better... IF Josh Donaldson can rediscover his swing... IF Ozzie Albies can take the next step... the Braves have a shot at finishing second in the NL East. They'll probably finish no worse than third anyway, even IF they don't do all those things.
2019 SC Prediction: 88-74 (2nd)
2018 Record (Finish): 82-80 (2nd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 89-73 (T-1st, WC1)
Notes: I'm sorry, there's no way a team finishes seven games better without Bryce Harper in their lineup than they did with. The sad thing is, they still have an amazing team without him, but it just makes no logical sense that they will succeed so quickly after losing the face of their franchise to a rival team in the same division.
2019 SC Prediction: 86-76 (3rd)
2018 Record (Finish): 77-85 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 87-75 (3rd)
Notes: They still have one of the best rotations in the NL, if not all of baseball. However, they still have no one who will give them run support. If Robinson Cano is the answer, you really have to wonder how tough the question was. Bonus prediction: The Mets will have the most number of 1-0 losses this season.
2019 SC Prediction: 80-82 (4th)
2018 Record (Finish): 63-98 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 67-95 (5th)
Notes: The Marlins have, yet again, gutted their team. Of the players currently on their roster from last season, the HR leader is Starlin Castro, who hit 12. He also leads the same subset of players with 8 stolen bases. Bonus predictions: there are 35 players who will hit more HR by themselves than the Marlins entire team in 2019. Trea Turner will also out-steal the Marlins, 59 to 32.
2019 SC Prediction: 68-94 (5th, possibly 6th if the Williamsport Little League Champions are allowed to play in the Majors this season)
Houston Astros -
2018 Record (Finish): 103-59 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 98-64 (1st)
Notes: This team is one monster 1B away from an All-Star infield (sorry, Yuli, you look like a pineapple and play like a squash). The rotation is loaded with former, current, and future All-Stars. They still play in the AL West. All signs point to another Division title in Houston.
2019 SC Prediction: 98-64 (1st)
2018 Record (Finish): 89-73 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 72-90 (4th)
Notes: It seems to me like there are always two possible records for the Mariners: 87-75, or 78-84. I know, it's verifiably not true, but it just seems like it to me. I wish I knew why. This team has a solid lineup and decent pitching, so I think it will lean closer to a good year than a bad, and Ichiro is back, so let's hope they get back to the playoffs for one last surge with him.
2019 SC Prediction: 84-78 (2nd)
2018 Record (Finish): 97-65 (2nd, WC2)
2019 Pecota Projections: 78-84 (3rd)
Notes: I can't figure out Oakland. I don't know if anyone really can. They should not have even sniffed the playoffs last season. They should be terrible this year. Yet they made last year work, so why not again? Nothing makes sense any more.
2019 SC Prediction: somewhere between 75-87 (T-3rd) and 117-45 (1st).
2018 Record (Finish): 80-82 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 80-82 (2nd)
Notes: Mike Trout is about to become the highest paid player in baseball history, finalizing a deal worth $430 million dollars over 12 years. The downside? He has to spend that 12 years with the Angels. The Angels have made the playoffs only once with Trout, losing in 2014's LDS to the eventual World Champion Royals. This deal is so insanely expensive that it does not help their prospects of signing other quality free-agents to play around him. So in all likelihood, they'll either need to trade him (which might not be possible if there is a no trade clause) or suck for the next 12 years.
2019 SC Prediction: 75-87 (T-3rd)
2018 Record (Finish): 67-95 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 70-92 (5th)
Notes: Dear God, Joey Gallo is listed as their starting centerfielder. Joey Gallo. With the departure of Adrian Beltre, so too goes the last of the fun to be had in Arlington. "The game tonight, is a messed up sight (clap clap clap clap) deep in the heart... of Texas!"
2019 SC Prediction: 66-96 (5th)
Cleveland Indians -
2018 Record (Finish): 91-71 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 96-66 (1st)
Notes: The collapse of the Cleveland Indians is coming any day now. I can feel it in my bones. It's inevitable. But when? They are still the class of a weak division, and they'll win just enough to fight off the surging Twins yet again.
2019 SC Prediction: 88-74 (1st)
2018 Record (Finish): 78-84 (2nd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 82-80 (2nd)
Notes: The Twins are still a mystery. Every season it looks like they will be terrible, yet they keep succeeding. I don't know how they do it, it may be arcane magic. They've got a clubhouse leader in Cruz, who if he stays healthy (and drug-free) should hit another 40 homeruns this season. There are a bunch of questions, but if they answer all of them yes, they have a real shot at upsetting Cleveland this season.
2019 SC Prediction: 87-75 (2nd)
Chicago White Sox -
2018 Record (Finish): 62-100 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 70-92 (4th)
Notes: This off-season, the story has been more about what hasn't been accomplished (signing either of the big name free-agents) than what has been done (not signing either of the big-name free agents, saving money that can be better invested in talent to help the core in 2020). The team is following the blue print laid out by the cross-town rival Cubs, who's own rebuild culminated in a title in 2016. The team still has to deal with a patchwork bullpen which isn't so much a "who's who" as it is a "who's that?" The offense is exciting, but not nearly as exciting is what's coming next year. They'll shock a few this season. I absolutely hate that they are discussing keeping Eloy Jimenez down until his free agency gets pushed back a year; that's more of a Cubs thing to do. Be better than that, White Sox.
2019 SC Prediction: 73-89 (3rd place)
2018 Record (Finish): 58-104 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 72-90 (3rd)
Notes:If Jorge Soler can figure things out, they might have a shot at slipping past the White Sox. Either way, that's as far as they'll go. Whit Merrifield's gonna be very lonely at the 2019 All-Star game.
2019 SC Prediction: 71-91 (3rd place)
2018 Record (Finish): 64-98 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 66-96 (5th)
Notes: It's sad to see Miguel Cabrera surrounded by this flotsam and jetsam that Detroit passes off as a major league baseball team. At least Josh Harrison should be fun to watch.
2019 SC Prediction: 64-98 (5th)
New York Yankees -
2018 Record (Finish): 100-62 (2nd, WC1)
2019 Pecota Projections: 96-68 (1st)
Notes: This is getting Steinbrenner levels of ridiculousness now. The Yankees were rumored to be heavily in on everyone this off-season, despite the fact they have six outfielders, three shortstops, eight closers, and six number two starters. They ended up with DJ LeMahieu (didn't he win a batting title two years ago?!) as a super-utility guy and have two of the best right fielders in the game (when they were actively courting a third) and picked up a former All-Star level shortstop as a stop gap until their real All-Star shortstop comes back. This team is stacked. If the starting pitching holds up, they will be the team to beat in the AL East.
2019 SC Prediction: 99-63 (1st)
2018 Record (Finish): 108-54 (1st)
2019 Pecota Projections: 90-72 (2nd, WC1)
Notes: The city of Boston has a very short memory when it comes to sports. They forget that, for the longest time in sports (except for the Celtics), they were a punchline of a very bad joke. Now that Boston has won several Championships (and at least one in all four of the major sports) and are the most successful sporting city in the 21st Century, the city swaggers about as if it has always been sports nirvana, rather than a town where championship dreams go to die. As such, they seem to have forgotten that they need a bullpen to win. They need to replace Craig Kimbrel badly, too bad there isn't someone out there who could do that... except there is; Craig Kimbrel. If they don't do something, they'll fall short this season and get passed by their hated rivals, the Yankees.
2019 SC Prediction: 91-71 (2nd)
Toronto Blue Jays -
2018 Record (Finish): 73-89 (4th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 75-87 (4th)
Notes: A lot of people are sleeping on the Blue Jays, but their team has some pretty decent depth and some kid of a former major leaguer who is already being enshrined in Cooperstown, if you believe the hype. Vladdy Jr. is going to start the year in the minors to work on that pesky "becoming a free agent in 2025" strain the team says he's suffering from. If Marcus Stroman can become the dominant All-Star everyone named Marcus Stroman believes he is, the Jays could be making a surprise push.
2019 SC Prediction: 84-78 (3rd)
2018 Record (Finish): 90-72 (3rd)
2019 Pecota Projections: 85-77 (3rd, WC2)
Notes: Tampa Bay has been playing over their heads. They don't have a full rotation, their big pickup has been Mike frikkin Zunino, and they are relying on Avisail Garcia to be competent. I really hope he turns things around, but he was dismal with the White Sox, and I don't see him suddenly flipping the switch at the Trop. Actually, since I started writing this entry, they've picked up Tommy Pham, so they might finish "extra 3rd" which is like 3rd, but with Pizza Hut after the game instead of the soul crushing silence of disappointed parents on the ride home.
2019 SC Prediction: 80-82 (4th)
2018 Record (Finish): 47-115 (5th)
2019 Pecota Projections: 58-104 (5th)
Notes: I think it is appropriate that the Orioles had braille jerseys lasts season.
2019 SC Prediction: 50-112 (5th)
Monday, February 04, 2019
21st Century Championships Won by Boston
21st Century Championships Won by Boston:
Super Bowls: 6 (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016, 2018)
World Series: 4 (2004, 2007, 2013, 2018)
Stanley Cup: 1 (2013)
NBA: 1 (2010)
Winner, Most Insufferable, Smuggest Fans: 8 (2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016 (3-way tie w/ Cubs, Cavs), 2018) (exempted, 2013)
Super Bowls Won by Players Suspected of Cheating at some point in their careers: 6 (see above)
Most Miserable Ugliest Human Being In Sports Award: 18 (Bill Belichick, 2000-2018)
Most Athletes Convicted of Murder: 1 (tied)
City With Shortest Memory About How They Sucked, Like, FOREVER Awards: 14 consecutive (dethroned after finishing 3rd in 2016, behind Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Cavaliers)
Winner, Slowest Moving Bandwagon 18 years straight!
Quickest Decline in Win Total: TBD (Already on order for whatever year Brady retires)
Super Bowls: 6 (2001, 2003, 2004, 2014, 2016, 2018)
World Series: 4 (2004, 2007, 2013, 2018)
Stanley Cup: 1 (2013)
NBA: 1 (2010)
Winner, Most Insufferable, Smuggest Fans: 8 (2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016 (3-way tie w/ Cubs, Cavs), 2018) (exempted, 2013)
Super Bowls Won by Players Suspected of Cheating at some point in their careers: 6 (see above)
Most Miserable Ugliest Human Being In Sports Award: 18 (Bill Belichick, 2000-2018)
Most Athletes Convicted of Murder: 1 (tied)
City With Shortest Memory About How They Sucked, Like, FOREVER Awards: 14 consecutive (dethroned after finishing 3rd in 2016, behind Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Cavaliers)
Winner, Slowest Moving Bandwagon 18 years straight!
Quickest Decline in Win Total: TBD (Already on order for whatever year Brady retires)
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