As details continue to emerge regarding the 2017 Astros' sign-stealing scandal, Major League Baseball and its fans are of varied opinion about how severe the penalties need to be. But the one thing that almost every one of them have in common is the belief that there should be a penalty for it. Stealing signs undermines the integrity of the game. For a sport that has been rocked by the cheating scandal of the 1919 Chicago White Sox and swore "never again," this kind of thing is a huge black eye and a test of their credibility.
Many feel that the players, coaches and executives involved should be fined and suspended, even though many of them have moved on to other teams. This has the potential to penalize teams that were not involved, however. Alex Cora, a bench coach for the Astros in 2017, is now the manager of the Boston Red Sox. Why should the Red Sox be punished for a wrong-doing another team perpetrated?*
(*Oy, did that not age well. The Red Sox are now implicated in a sign stealing scandal taking place in 2018, and once again, at the heart of it, is Alex Cora.)
The only way to be fair in all of this is to tailor the penalties to the individuals without interfering with their new positions. Fines, then would be the primary factor. I suggest that MLB fine all parties involved the exact amount they earned as a World Series share, as well as 10% of their 2017 salary. This retroactively punishes them without affecting the team they currently play for. They should also be forced to turn in their World Series Championship rings. Why should they get to keep a trophy they didn't earn?
As far as the Astros organization, it's a harder case to call. Yes, the organization had to have known what was going on, given the technology and complexity involved, but to penalize them draft picks and international pool money, revoke any playoff eligibility, and/or retroactively strip them of their world series title not only penalizes the team, it penalizes the fanbase as well. The fans did nothing wrong, and although you can say they benefited (tangentially) from the scheme, it's tough to say they gained anything but pride.
However, if you are okay with the fans suffering as collateral damage, then let's not hold back on the punishment. If you really want to send a message to Houston and any other team that this sort of thing will not be tolerated, then I propose you allow each team in the league, once per series played against the Astros in Houston, the ability to create a run out of nothing, at the time of their choosing.
Example: The Mariners, down one to the Astros in the top of the ninth, decide to exercise their option. They add the run, and the game is tied. If the pitcher currently on the mound was an Astro in 2017, then the run counts as an earned run; if not, the run is unearned. All further stats are also considered; if the closer was a 'Stro in '17, he gets a blown save. If the teams are tied in the ninth, and the opponent elects to add the run, and they win the game with a shutout 9th, then the pitcher gets the loss. If, at the end of the series, the opponent has not used the run, it gets added onto the box score of the last game in the series.
You might say that teams that divisional teams have a greater advantage in this scenario, but they also played more games against the Astros in 2017, and arguably suffered more from the cheating. You may think it will create a glut of fictional runs, but if the Astros are good enough, they will be up by more than one for many of these games. There is an infinitesimal chance that the phantom runs never decide a game, in which case the organization would escape any real punishment. But let's look at 2017's results to see how it might affect them in 2020:
In 2017, the Astros played 5 extra inning games at home (2-3), and 12 one-run non-extras games at home (7-5). If the same thing happened in 2020, they would likely lose those all 5 of those games before they even got to extra innings (unless the opponents chose not to exercise the phantom run). Assuming those 7 one run victories games all went to extras, let's say the Astros are good enough to win 3 of them in extra innings anyway. The Astros record would have 6 fewer wins. If they were a 101-61 team (like 2017) they'd actually be 95-67 (which, if these penalties were retroactively put in place against the 2017 Astros, they would have still won the division handily, as the Rangers were in 2nd place with a losing record (80-82).
Alternatively, the Astros could forfeit their DH privilege for 2020. Make the pitchers hit. The opponent can still use a DH, but not the Astros.
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